{"id":122,"date":"2015-12-27T01:04:33","date_gmt":"2015-12-27T01:04:33","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/thereisnewsinthetruth.com\/?p=122"},"modified":"2018-01-20T03:33:12","modified_gmt":"2018-01-20T03:33:12","slug":"the-great-bluff","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thereisnewsinthetruth.com\/?p=122","title":{"rendered":"The Great Bluff"},"content":{"rendered":"<h3>The Fresh Face?<\/h3>\n<h6><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" data-attachment-id=\"135\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/thereisnewsinthetruth.com\/?attachment_id=135\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/thereisnewsinthetruth.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/04\/img_angif-poker-face-scen02.jpg?fit=309%2C200&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"309,200\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;1&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"img_angif-poker-face-scen02\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-medium-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/thereisnewsinthetruth.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/04\/img_angif-poker-face-scen02.jpg?fit=300%2C194&amp;ssl=1\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/thereisnewsinthetruth.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/04\/img_angif-poker-face-scen02.jpg?fit=309%2C200&amp;ssl=1\" class=\"size-medium wp-image-135 alignleft\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/thereisnewsinthetruth.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/04\/img_angif-poker-face-scen02.jpg?resize=300%2C194\" alt=\"img_angif-poker-face-scen02\" width=\"300\" height=\"194\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/thereisnewsinthetruth.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/04\/img_angif-poker-face-scen02.jpg?resize=300%2C194&amp;ssl=1 300w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/thereisnewsinthetruth.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/04\/img_angif-poker-face-scen02.jpg?resize=260%2C168&amp;ssl=1 260w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/thereisnewsinthetruth.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/04\/img_angif-poker-face-scen02.jpg?resize=160%2C104&amp;ssl=1 160w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/thereisnewsinthetruth.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/04\/img_angif-poker-face-scen02.jpg?w=309&amp;ssl=1 309w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px\" \/><em>April 7, 2016<\/em><\/h6>\n<p>This whole notion that Establishment is going to parachute some non-candidate into the convention is a bluff.\u00a0\u00a0They are practicing the\u00a0&#8220;Art of the Deal.&#8221;\u00a0\u00a0 They are proposing something that is so far out of the scope of what\u00a0is possible in hopes of\u00a0getting something in the middle.\u00a0\u00a0This strategy is a bluff because it&#8217;s something that has <strong>NEVER<\/strong> happened in the history of the Republican Party, and it never will happen.\u00a0\u00a0John Boehner <a href=\"http:\/\/www.politico.com\/story\/2016\/03\/boehner-endorses-paul-ryan-for-president-220855#ixzz455dnThdi\">said<\/a> &#8220;If we don&#8217;t have a nominee who can win on the first ballot, I&#8217;m for none of the above. They all had a chance to win. None of them won. So I&#8217;m for none of the above. I&#8217;m for Paul Ryan to be our nominee.&#8221;\u00a0 John Boehner was the Chairman of the 2008 and 2012 convention.\u00a0 He knows full well that this parachute notion is\u00a0impossible.\u00a0 Karl Rove <a href=\"http:\/\/www.washingtontimes.com\/news\/2016\/apr\/1\/karl-rove-says-fresh-face-needed-gop-presidential-\/\">said<\/a>, &#8220;&#8230;a fresh face might be the thing that could give us a chance to turn this election and win in November.\u201d\u00a0 Karl Rove the ultimate establishment insider, he&#8217;s been through this numerous times.\u00a0 He also knows full well that this will never happen.<\/p>\n<p>How do we know this won&#8217;t happen?\u00a0 How do we know it&#8217;s impossible?\u00a0 First, it never has happened in the history of the Republican Party.\u00a0 Ever since the Civil War, this has never happened.\u00a0 The nomination has always been given to a candidate that was\u00a0on the 1st ballot at the convention.\u00a0 Secondly, the current rules absolutely do no allow it.\u00a0 The only way the Establishment can drop someone new in is to <strong>CHANGE THE RULES<\/strong>.\u00a0 There&#8217;s four ways to amend the rules:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>The standing rules committee which has been meeting during this election\u00a0can amend the rules.\u00a0 It&#8217;s my understanding that they <a href=\"http:\/\/www.redstate.com\/diary\/Morton_C_Blackwell\/2016\/03\/08\/rules-2016-republican-national-convention\/\">already have amended them<\/a> in January.<\/li>\n<li>The RNC can amend the rules before the convention.\u00a0 These are the heads sitting in the high places of the RNC.<\/li>\n<li>The new rules committee that meets one week before the convention can amend\u00a0the rules.\u00a0 This committee consists of two duly elected delegates from each state. 80% of the current new delegates are Trump\/Cruz delegates.<\/li>\n<li>On the convention floor, amendments can be proposed if 25% agree.\u00a0\u00a0I suppose they vote on the amendments.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Ultimately though, to make the rules effectual from the 2016 convention forward, the majority of these 2473 delegates must vote to ratify the entire set of rules before the convention continues.\u00a0 So in the end, it makes no difference who, what, or when the rules are amended, the delegates must vote to make them effectual.\u00a0 So there is no way on\u00a0God&#8217;s green earth that all these delegates (a grand majority of which are bound to anti-Establishment candidates) are going to vote to bring in an Establishment non-candidate like Ryan or Romney that hasn&#8217;t run the entire campaign season.\u00a0 No way.\u00a0 No how.\u00a0 Forget about it.<\/p>\n<p>Fortunately, on Tuesday, Jamie Dupree and Newt Gingrich <a href=\"http:\/\/www.newsmax.com\/Politics\/newt-gingrich-contested-convention-wont\/2016\/04\/05\/id\/722471\/\">finally corrected Hannity<\/a> about this nonsense.\u00a0Newsmax wrote: &#8216;Gingrich said Trump and Cruz will enter the convention with 80 percent of the delegates, and have no incentive to change a current rule that requires someone to have won the most votes in at least eight states to secure the nomination. Why, he asked, would they &#8220;give it to some nice person who didn&#8217;t run, didn&#8217;t raise money, didn&#8217;t debate, didn&#8217;t win delegates but what the heck? &#8216;He&#8217;s really,&#8217; or &#8216;she&#8217;s really, a terrific person.&#8217; I mean, even in a novel you couldn&#8217;t get away with this.&#8221;&#8216;\u00a0 It will be\u00a0interesting to see if Rush and Hannity will keep parroting this false strategy.<\/p>\n<h3>Why bluff?<\/h3>\n<p>So why would Establishment types keep pushing this narrative?\u00a0 Why would they keep saying that they want to do something they know they can&#8217;t do?\u00a0 They are proposing something that is so far out of the scope of what is possible in hopes of getting something in the middle that <strong>IS<\/strong>\u00a0possible.\u00a0 What is possible?\u00a0 The only remote possibility they have of affecting this nomination and thus the presidency lies in Kasich.\u00a0 That&#8217;s why he&#8217;s still in there.\u00a0 As the rules stand now, there is no way for Kasich to get on the ballot.\u00a0 He has\u00a0not won a majority of delegates in eight states.\u00a0 That&#8217;s just not going to happen either.\u00a0 So the establishment&#8217;s only hope is to get a rule change that will allow Kasich on the ballot.\u00a0 This is not so that Kasich can win, but so that Kasich and Trump can broker a deal on the convention floor and Trump can win.<\/p>\n<p>So the bluffing serves two purposes:\u00a0 First, it caused an unwarranted fear of a contested convention and of the establishment.\u00a0 In that respect it worked.\u00a0 Sean Hannity parroted this bologna 20 times a day for the past 2 months and has tried endlessly to scare people into believing that the Establishment is going to &#8220;leap frog&#8221; some non-candidate into the mix.\u00a0 Rush Limbaugh bit too.\u00a0 Every episode he made sure to tell us that the Establishment&#8217;s plan was to parachute in a savior.\u00a0 It is\u00a0their hope that this fear will cause people to coalesce around Trump so he can win outright on the 1st ballot.\u00a0 Now, whether or not Sean and Rush did this intentionally or out of ignorance, I&#8217;ll let you decide.\u00a0 Well, it didn&#8217;t work: just like all their other plans this season.\u00a0 Secondly, and more realistically, is to distract from the inevitable rule change that will let their man in on the 1st ballot.<\/p>\n<p>Now, note that there has been <a href=\"http:\/\/www.redstate.com\/diary\/Morton_C_Blackwell\/2016\/03\/08\/rules-2016-republican-national-convention\/\">a push since 2012 to change the rules<\/a> in this manner.\u00a0 The kicker is that it hasn&#8217;t come from the Establishment.\u00a0 In 2012 rule 40 was tightened up by the Establishment (a majority of the delegates voted to change this rule on the convention floor, the grand majority of them were Romney delegates, so go figure).\u00a0 It was tightened up to keep Ron Paul off the ballot.\u00a0 Subsequently, Ron Paul delegates were completely disenfranchised.\u00a0 They couldn&#8217;t vote, their vote was not counted, and they were completely ignored when the numbers were announced.\u00a0 So rightly so, they were pretty mad.\u00a0 They&#8217;re still mad.\u00a0 So this January, for the second time that I know of, at the standing rules committee meeting, this issue was brought up and the rules were actually amended.\u00a0 But at the last second, it was motioned to reconsider, and it was shot down.<\/p>\n<p>Why?\u00a0 At that point in time, January,\u00a0no primaries or caucuses had taken place, and the Establishment was still thinking they could run this like they always have and wanted the rules to stay the same.\u00a0 But since then, Whoops! Jeb Bush is out. Christie is out. Rubio is out.\u00a0 Now, the two front runners are Trump and Cruz and the last man they got is Kasich.\u00a0 Oh the irony!\u00a0 The same rule they put in to keep Ron Paul out is the same one that keeps their last hope out.\u00a0 There&#8217;s another standing rules committee meeting at the end of April.\u00a0 It will be very interesting to hear what song the Establishment is singing then.<\/p>\n<p>Now, they <strong>HAVE<\/strong> to change the rules; but not for the sake of winning.\u00a0 There&#8217;s no way Kasich can win (I&#8217;ll explain later).\u00a0 The Establishment has already lost.\u00a0 They know it&#8217;s either Trump or Cruz now.\u00a0 So keep in mind that the Establishment&#8217;s definition of winning is not necessarily a Republican in the White House.\u00a0 Some of them have flat out said that they&#8217;d vote for Hillary over Trump.\u00a0 Their strategy is to take Cruz out at the convention and Trump out in the general.\u00a0 So they&#8217;re bluffing about this whole parachute a non-candidate fresh face in to distract from the real fight:\u00a0 Rule 40.\u00a0 I just read an <a href=\"https:\/\/www.conservativereview.com\/commentary\/2016\/04\/flirting-with-chaos-trumps-bromance-with-super-pac-allies\">article<\/a> about how Ron Paul&#8217;s people are running the Pro-Trump PACs\u00a0\u00a0 There&#8217;s already a move to change Rule 40 on the basis and interest of fairness.\u00a0 It&#8217;s very likely that establishment people in standing rules committee will say, &#8220;Well there was a lot of support for this in January, and it wasn&#8217;t fair for 2012 Paul delegates, and we believe that yes we should let every candidate&#8217;s delegates be counted and announced.\u00a0 The fair thing to do is open up Rule 40.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>They&#8217;re going to try to pull this off; and it is reasonable.\u00a0\u00a0Any sensible person would agree.\u00a0\u00a0It&#8217;s not fair that delegates that are bound to vote for candidates by the\u00a0national\u00a0convention, state convention,\u00a0and the vote of the people be prevented from casting their vote.\u00a0\u00a0They should at the very least be allowed to vote for whom they are bound to vote for.\u00a0 It makes sense.\u00a0 They are most likely going to change the threshold (Rule 40:\u00a0 eight-state majority of delegates).\u00a0 The question will be where will that threshold land?\u00a0 If they roll it back to 2012 rules, the threshold would be that the candidate must win five states; they must get the plurality of the delegates in five states.\u00a0 Sounds good, but if this still disenfranchises Kasich delegates, and Rubio delegates for that matter, then what&#8217;s the point?\u00a0 So there will be a moral argument to lower the threshold enough to at least let the people who are still running show up on the 1st ballot.\u00a0 And the Establishment knows and will take advantage of the non-Establishment&#8217;s dedication to morality!\u00a0 Will the amendment pass?\u00a0\u00a0 That is yet to be determined.\u00a0 When it gets to the convention floor and the 2473 delegates vote on these rules, will a majority vote in favor?\u00a0 That&#8217;s yet to be determined.<\/p>\n<p>So the bluff is a distraction and leverage to change Rule 40 to their favor.\u00a0 It will show the world how willing they are to compromise and be fair to ALL the candidates.\u00a0 The Trojan horse is FAIRNESS.\u00a0 Sneaky?\u00a0 Yes.<\/p>\n<h3>If the bluff works?<\/h3>\n<p>In other words, what if Kasich gets on the ballot?\u00a0 Not good.\u00a0 The Establishment&#8217;s intentions are for Trump to offer Kasich\u00a0the Vice-Presidential position in return for his delegates.\u00a0 There may be some deal for\u00a0Rubio too.\u00a0 The delegates will eventually be free to vote their conscience.\u00a0 However,\u00a0where they go will have a lot to do with what deals are brokered.\u00a0 That&#8217;s why it&#8217;s called a brokered convention.\u00a0 Most likely, the deal is already made.\u00a0 Trump, the great deal maker, knows that one on one with Cruz is a losing proposition.\u00a0 He needs the Establishment to win in a contested convention.\u00a0 He&#8217;s getting desperate now because he&#8217;s sinking in the polls.\u00a0 He&#8217;s leaking unbound delegates.\u00a0 He&#8217;s leaking bound delegates.\u00a0Cruz is gaining momentum and winning delegates.\u00a0 The only way to win is to make a deal with the Establishment.\u00a0 Trump wants to win, so he&#8217;ll make the deal.\u00a0 The Establishment doesn&#8217;t want to win.\u00a0 They want to stay in power.\u00a0 If they can get Kasich on the ballot and swing all his delegates and anybody else to Trump, then they destroy Cruz.\u00a0 That&#8217;s a win for the Establishment.\u00a0 They can show everyone how well they unify and support the nominee.\u00a0 Trump goes on to the general election and loses.\u00a0 That&#8217;s a win for the Establishment.\u00a0 Nothing would make them happier than to have a Democrat in the White House.\u00a0 Then they can stay RINOs\u00a0and kick political footballs around for another 4 years.<\/p>\n<p>Another thing to consider is the track record of a front-runner going into a contested convention like Trump is:\u00a0\u00a0There have been ten\u00a0contested conventions in the history of the RNC.\u00a0 Four of those ten, the nomination has gone to the front runner, the candidate with the plurality of the delegates.\u00a0\u00a0Of those\u00a0four,\u00a0<strong>every single one of them lost the general election<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<p>Now, some people think that the Establishment honestly would want Kasich to win.\u00a0 And conservative talk and radio go along with this.\u00a0 This is also a distraction.\u00a0 They go on and on and on about how delusional Kasich is.\u00a0 &#8220;He has no mathematical chance of winning the nomination!\u00a0 He&#8217;s trying to drag this to a contested convention!\u00a0 He&#8217;s a spoiler!\u00a0 Why is he still in this race?&#8221;\u00a0 Well here&#8217;s why:\u00a0 Of the ten contested conventions that the party has gone through, in six of them the nomination was given to an underdog.\u00a0 Five of those six times, the nominee has gone on to actually win the Presidency of the United States.\u00a0 And surprisingly, five of those six also came into the convention with less delegates that Kasich has now (12%).\u00a0 And as I said earlier, all of the four front-runners that won the nomination lost the general election.\u00a0 So, historically speaking, if he could just get on the ballot, Kasich has the greatest chance of winning the Presidency of the three!\u00a0 Kasich is not delusional.\u00a0 He&#8217;s just historical!<\/p>\n<p>As also previously stated, <strong>IF<\/strong> we get to a contested convention with Kasich on the ballot, he still\u00a0cannot win, despite the fact that history is on his side.\u00a0 This is because of what he&#8217;s up against.\u00a0 He is not competing against other Establishment candidates like Jeb and Rubio, or other governors like Perry and Walker.\u00a0 This is a Cruz and Trump convention now.\u00a0 The vast majority of delegates are bound to vote against the Establishment.\u00a0 Sorry\u00a0Johnny!\u00a0 You&#8217;re the outsider now!\u00a0\u00a0We have come to the point of no return.\u00a0 This is no normal election.<\/p>\n<h3>Calling the Bluff<\/h3>\n<p>Don&#8217;t change the rules.\u00a0 Leave them as they are.\u00a0 <strong>THAT<\/strong> is fair.\u00a0 These are the rules they all agree to before this race started.\u00a0 The only reason to change them is to accommodate some person that doesn&#8217;t want to follow the rules.\u00a0 The rhetoric will soon come that we must be fair and democratic and thus change the rules.\u00a0 Don&#8217;t fall for that mess.\u00a0 What&#8217;s good for the goose is good for the gander.\u00a0 They wrote the rules.\u00a0 Let them follow them.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>So the bluffing serves two purposes:  First, it caused an unwarranted fear of a contested convention and of the establishment.  In that respect it worked.  Sean Hannity parroted this bologna 20 times a day for the past 2 months and has tried endlessly to scare people into believing that the Establishment is going to &#8220;leap frog&#8221; some non-candidate into the mix.  Rush Limbaugh bit too.  Every episode he made sure to tell us that the Establishment&#8217;s plan was to parachute in a savior.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":135,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":false,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[5],"tags":[10,11,6,8,12,9,13,7],"class_list":["post-122","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-political","tag-contested","tag-convention","tag-cruz","tag-kasich","tag-republican","tag-rule-40","tag-rush","tag-trump"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/thereisnewsinthetruth.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/04\/img_angif-poker-face-scen02.jpg?fit=309%2C200&ssl=1","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p7qg4l-1Y","jetpack-related-posts":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thereisnewsinthetruth.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/122","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thereisnewsinthetruth.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thereisnewsinthetruth.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thereisnewsinthetruth.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thereisnewsinthetruth.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=122"}],"version-history":[{"count":15,"href":"https:\/\/thereisnewsinthetruth.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/122\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":288,"href":"https:\/\/thereisnewsinthetruth.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/122\/revisions\/288"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thereisnewsinthetruth.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/135"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thereisnewsinthetruth.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=122"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thereisnewsinthetruth.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=122"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thereisnewsinthetruth.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=122"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}