Smaug is Dead
April 14, 2016
For many years the Dragon has been king under the Lonely Mountain. News has traveled across Middle Earth that the Dragon is dead. Many have set their sights on the gold in the heart of the mountain. The armies from Middle Earth will converge for battle in Cleveland, Ohio at the Republican National Convention.
It’s not gold they will battle for, but for THE RULES. It’s possible that the blood bath won’t necessarily be on the convention floor, but rather in the Convention Rules Committee that meets one week before the convention. All eyes should be there and on the subsequent vote that will ratify these rules. The Standing Rules Committee has been meeting since 2012 and have the power to change the rules. The RNC leaders still must have their say. The Convention Rules Committee, with all the newly elected delegates, will also have their say. Then finally these rules will be brought before the entire delegation of 2473 patriotic warriors that will cast their vote on THE RULES. Nobody really can say what will happen on the convention floor until these rules are locked down. If the dreaded Rule 40 stands, then there will only be two candidates on the ballot. If Rule 40 is changed, there may be 3, 4, 5, or 6 people on the ballot, depending on how much it is changes. In a contested convention, it’s hard to make a determination until the rules are finalized.
Consider this: Most of these brave delegate are bound to vote specifically for a certain candidate during the nomination process. However, how will they vote when it’s time to vote on the rules? Nobody really knows. It depends, first of all, on who their personal preference is. Some may vote on the rules according to how much they want their personal choice to be the nominee. In other words, they only vote in a manner that will help their candidate’s chances of winning; and they will not vote in a manner that will hurt their candidate’s chances. Or, it may depend on their personal philosophy regarding party rules. There are some delegates who will weigh their vote against principles of government. Do the rules support the model of a republic or a democracy?. Or some may be more loyal to their political party and unity over any candidate. Some may say, “Inny minny miney moe!” We really don’t know. And we won’t know until the day of battle.
Donald the Defiler
The front-runner, Donald Trump, chose NOT to run a grassroots, state by state, multi-level, traditional campaign. He chose to run a national, drive-by, in-your-face, reality show. And it’s been the greatest show on earth. The only way Trump is going to win this now is to reach the 1237 delegate majority is to get it on the first ballot. If he doesn’t, he’s going into a contested convention, where he is going to get his hair handed to him.
Donald Trump has enjoyed every possible advantage in this presidential race thus far. When this thing began, Trump had 1000X more name recognition that any of these candidates. For decades, people have known about Donald Trump. He has been given an extraordinary amount of free television and radio time. If he’s not on the show himself, they’re constantly talking about him, or they have someone on their show talking about him. Nine out of ten articles on any given news sight, for or against, has got his name on it. He didn’t have to raise money like everybody else had to do. Winner-take-all primaries and caucuses have given him 22% more delegates than he actually got in votes. He’s gotten a pass by his supporters on every stupid, raunchy, fowl-mouthed, mud-slinging insult that has come out of his big mouth.
Yet in the end, despite ALL these advantages, it’s looking more and more like he is just not able to secure this nomination. It looks like he’s going to choke! Why? It’s simple. Among people who care about our country and are informed, engaged, and principled, Trump is the most repulsive character to ever appear on a ballot; and they just don’t want to see him as the next President. So in the grassroots, on the ground, where it counts, the people are simply not choosing Trump. Trump is winning a popularity contest; but it’s not enough to win a nomination.
So what does this mean for Trump at the Rules Committee? Some people have said four out of five of Trump’s bound delegates, once unbound, will drop Trump like a bad habit. Trump needs to win this on the first ballot, or he’s going home. Leaving Rule 40 the same, may actually help Trump. If Rule 40 stands, only Trump and Cruz are on the ballot. The 1st vote is where Trump will have the most bound delegates. If he’s 50 short, then all he’ll need is 50 of the unbound delegates to get this done. On the 2nd ballot, he’ll will drop a lot of bound delegates and he’ll never get them back.
However, if the Rule 40 stands, there’s a lot of uncertainty as what happens to the delegates that were bound to candidates that didn’t make it on the 1st ballot. Do they become suddenly unbound? In 2012, any votes for Ron Paul were not counted. According to the Rules, they were bound to a candidate whose votes were going to be counted. Yes, they were mad. So if that happens again, then leaving Rule 40 the same doesn’t really help Trump unless they tweak it to unbound the bound. They may do that. There is just reason to do so. Why should delegates be bound to a candidate that has dropped out of the race, especially if their candidate isn’t even going to have his votes counted?
Now changing Rule 40 to let everybody in may help Trump if he’s already made a backroom deal. This would require that on the 1st ballot, nobody wins, and on the 2nd ballot Trump must woo enough delegates to him to make up for the 2nd ballot losses plus more to get to the majority. A backroom deal would have to manifest itself in the Establishment candidates trying hold sway over their delegates. For example, Kasich delegates will stay with Kasich wherever he tells them to go. However, there’s just not enough numbers for this.
An educated guess would be that Trump would want to keep the threshold in Rule 40 but change it in such a way that the disenfranchised bound will be unbound, and as a thanks, he’ll hopefully win a few more to take him over the top on the first ballot.
Blackwell the Red
Morton Blackwell may play one of the biggest roles in this battle at the Rules Committee. Who’s Morton Blackwell? He’s been a delegate involved with the rules since 1972. There isn’t a more knowledgeable person in the country on this matter. Also, he’s been very instrumental in trying to fix the rule changes from 2012 that were so destructive to the party. As of March 31st, he is still very engaged and very much ready to fix the problems in the rules.
Blackwell is a Cruz supporter. One would have thought that he’d want to keep the rules the same to keep everybody off the ballot except Cruz and Trump and let the best man win. Well, that’s not how it works. His life long ambition has been to de-centralize the power in the Republican Party. This guy is an amazing Patriot that has fought all his life to keep the power out of the hands of the elite. It would be hypocritical of him to change course on this just because his guy is on top. Principles and the safety of the republic are more important. If Blackwell gets the 2012 rules rolled back he deserves much praise.
Blackwell’s article, Rules at the 2016 Republican National Convention, is a bit difficult to understand if you don’t concentrate. So below is a quick summary:
- The 5 state plurality threshold came into existence with the advent of television in order to keep the convention on schedule.
- The 5 state plurality threshold NEVER kept candidates from having their vote counted
- In 2012, rules were changed so that the threshold was increased to an 8 state majority. This was not just to disqualify Ron Paul, but to crush forever the Tea Party uprising.
- In 2012, rules were also changed so that any votes for disqualified candidates were not counted on the convention floor.
No matter how tempting it is to cut Kasich out of this thing, it is in the best interests of the grassroots, and the Republican Party that the Romney Rules be rescinded. Here’s a direct quote from the article:
Our Party adopted the “threshold” rule to prevent delay of our national conventions by nominating speeches and floor demonstrations, without any thought or intent to deprive legitimate Delegates of the right to vote for candidates they support or for whom they were bound by their state party primaries.
In the article, Blackwell outlined what happened in the latest Standing Rules Committee meeting back in January 2016. In Summary, he moved to change the rules to ensure that all votes be counted, whether they are for someone that qualifies or not. It almost passed, but in the end it was reconsidered and tabled. The Spring meeting is at the end of April. Morton will no doubt try again.
Edwardruil Cruz
Cruz has a tremendous advantage here. The momentum is already going in the direction of a rule change. Kasich being so confident may signify that the Establishment is aiming for a rule change. Morton Blackwell and those that trust him are also pushing for a rule change. The grassroots is so ticked off at what Romney did four years ago, they want the rules changed. All Cruz has to do is lead it up.
He obviously has enough delegates that prefer him, bound or unbound. So it is possible for him to win this if he plays his cards right. He must be careful of getting outflanked in the Convention Rules Committee. Cruz’s best place to win is at the second ballot, so he must get there. So it’s in Cruz’s best interest to change the rules back to the way it was before the 2012 Convention. There are some awesome positives to this:
- This puts Cruz on the side of the grassroots. You can’t be the leader of the grassroots and support the Romney Rules.
- It can be a unification call to Libertarians because it recognizes the evil that was done to the Ron Paul crowd.
- The rule change will ensure that bound delegates stay bound to the candidate they’re bound to. This would keep the number of unbound delegates down to a minimum on the 1st ballot decreasing the chances of Trump taking it on the 1st ballot.
- This will also do wonders for the morale of the Convention. If every delegate that is bound to a candidate is allowed to vote, and also have his/her vote counted, that makes for a happy convention. Every delegate will feel that they’ve participated. Cruz can capitalize on this, especially if his opponent is against the Rule change.
- This can set a precedence for future conventions and help bring the power down from the elites to the grassroots.
What about the negatives? Well, no doubt, Trump is going to do what he did in Colorado: squeal like a stuck pig! “Look! There it is again! They’re changing the rules! Cruz and the Establishment is in league! He’s a corrupt politician!” The mob outside the convention is going to have a fit. There might be blood. Delegates are going to be intimidated. Trump will cuss. Everything he’s done so far, he will do tenfold. At this point, who cares? What if he goes third party? Good Riddance. Will he hurt Cruz’s chances in the general? Who knows?
Kasich, the Dwarf
Kasich is by far the smallest one in the race. If Kasich really wants to win the Presidency… That’s debatable; but IF he really wants to win, he’s going to have to get on that ballot first. There’s only one way for him to do that. Change the rules. He’s got to get that threshold lowered down. Any other position on this would confirm that he’s a low-down conniving rat in league with Donald the Defiler. And that would expose the Establishment as the wicked back-room deal-makers that they are. This would reveal him to be more of a Nikabrik than a Balin, which of course is all together another story.
Here’s an interesting article: Karl Rove-backed PAC warms to Trump: The strategist publicly questions Trump’s electability, but privately his PAC tells donors Trump can win. Also, Don’t forget how Trump and Kasich box Cruz out in Michigan for the two Rules Committee positions. Hmmm? Go figure.
On the first ballot, if the threshold is left in a manner that only Cruz and Trump are eligible, Trump should have the easiest time getting to the 1237. Cruz probably can’t. Trump can. If the threshold is lowered, mathematically Trump’s chances really don’t change. The only way to benefit, is for the Trump campaign not just to fight to keep the rules the same, but they must lobby to unbind the disenfranchised bound delegates in the interest of being fair.
Can that be done? Maybe. But it may be offered as a so-called “fix” to the Romney Rule. “Your candidate is still not eligible, but we promise we’ll count your vote, like we always have. Right Morton?” It’s possible that Trump might try it. If Kasich is on board, you’ll know where the Establishment has been hanging out, and you’re about to graduate from Trump University. It still seems unlikely, being that Kasich just doesn’t have a lot of delegates to pull this off. He’d need some very influential entrenched Establishment delegates to do this; and maybe some Cruz delegates that aren’t up to snuff to what he’s trying to do.
Also, remember that of the 10 contested conventions that the Republicans have had, in six of them the nomination was given to an underdog. Five of them went on to win the Presidency. Abraham Lincoln was one of them and had 22% of the delegates. All the others had less that what Kasich has now (12%).
Ryan the Dragon-Slayer
Sorry, not this time, Bard! You notice in the movie Bard and the men and women of Lake Town really didn’t have much of an impact on the war. They had no armor. They were weak and frail. They were few in number. They just really didn’t accomplish much in the battle. Well, neither is Paul Ryan.
There’s no way on this green earth that the 2016 delegates are going to allow a non-candidate to just waltz in and take the Presidency. It’s never happened in the history of the Republican Party and it never will. They’re never going to give this Paul Ryan fantasy up. They may give up on Ryan and just stick another name in there. It’s still a bluff, conceived and perpetuated by Trump and the Establishment, just to create confusion to get people’s eyes off the real battle of the Rules.
In The Great Bluff, and subsequent articles, it was believed that Trump would want the rule changed and Cruz would not want the rule change. This is partly because at one point Cruz did say that he didn’t think a rule change was good. And it was assumed that Rubio delegates were Establishment. However, Marco Rubio told Mark Levin the other night that he wanted his delegates to stay bound to him on the first ballot. This may not mean anything. But it may signify where the contention lies. Why would he be worried about someone unbinding his delegates unless someone was threatening to unbind his delegates? So the thesis is modified. In the battle, Cruz will want the rules changed. Trump will probably not want the threshold changed, just manipulated a bit to loose up some delegates. Confused? Good.