Tag: contested

Battle of the Five Armies

December 31, 2015

5armyTotal-article

Smaug is Dead

April 14, 2016

For many years the Dragon has been king under the Lonely Mountain. News has traveled across Middle Earth that the Dragon is dead.  Many have set their sights on the gold in the heart of the mountain.  The armies from Middle Earth will converge for battle in Cleveland, Ohio at the Republican National Convention.

It’s not gold they will battle for, but for THE RULES.  It’s possible that the blood bath won’t necessarily be on the convention floor, but rather in the Convention Rules Committee that meets one week before the convention.  All eyes should be there and on the subsequent vote that will ratify these rules.  The Standing Rules Committee has been meeting since 2012 and have the power to change the rules.  The RNC leaders still must have their say.  The Convention Rules Committee, with all the newly elected delegates, will also have their say.  Then finally these rules will be brought before the entire delegation of 2473 patriotic warriors that will cast their vote on THE RULES.  Nobody really can say what will happen on the convention floor until these rules are locked down.  If the dreaded Rule 40 stands, then there will only be two candidates on the ballot.  If Rule 40 is changed, there may be 3, 4, 5, or 6 people on the ballot, depending on how much it is changes.  In a contested convention, it’s hard to make a determination until the rules are finalized.

Consider this:  Most of these brave delegate are bound to vote specifically for a certain candidate during the nomination process.  However, how will they vote when it’s time to vote on the rules?  Nobody really knows.  It depends, first of all, on who their personal preference is.  Some may vote on the rules according to how much they want their personal choice to be the nominee.  In other words, they only vote in a manner that will help their candidate’s chances of winning; and they will not vote in a manner that will hurt their candidate’s chances.  Or, it may depend on their personal philosophy regarding party rules.  There are some delegates who will weigh their vote against principles of government.  Do the rules support the model of a republic or a democracy?.  Or some may be more loyal to their political party and unity over any candidate.  Some may say, “Inny minny miney moe!”  We really don’t know.  And we won’t know until the day of battle.

5armyTrump-articleDonald the Defiler

The front-runner, Donald Trump, chose NOT to run a grassroots, state by state, multi-level, traditional campaign.  He chose to run a national, drive-by, in-your-face, reality show.  And it’s been the greatest show on earth.  The only way Trump is going to win this now is to reach the 1237 delegate majority is to get it on the first ballot.  If he doesn’t, he’s going into a contested convention, where he is going to get his hair handed to him.

Donald Trump has enjoyed every possible advantage in this presidential race thus far.  When this thing began, Trump had 1000X more name recognition that any of these candidates.  For decades, people have known about Donald Trump.  He has been given an extraordinary amount of free television and radio time.  If he’s not on the show himself, they’re constantly talking about him, or they have someone on their show talking about him.  Nine out of ten articles on any given news sight, for or against, has got his name on it.  He didn’t have to raise money like everybody else had to do.  Winner-take-all primaries and caucuses have given him 22% more delegates than he actually got in votes.  He’s gotten a pass by his supporters on every stupid, raunchy, fowl-mouthed, mud-slinging insult that has come out of his big mouth.

Yet in the end, despite ALL these advantages, it’s looking more and more like he is just not able to secure this nomination.  It looks like he’s going to choke!  Why?  It’s simple.  Among people who care about our country and are informed, engaged, and principled, Trump is the most repulsive character to ever appear on a ballot; and they just don’t want to see him as the next President.  So in the grassroots, on the ground, where it counts, the people are simply not choosing Trump.  Trump is winning a popularity contest; but it’s not enough to win a nomination.

So what does this mean for Trump at the Rules Committee?  Some people have said four out of five of Trump’s bound delegates, once unbound, will drop Trump like a bad habit.  Trump needs to win this on the first ballot, or he’s going home.  Leaving Rule 40 the same, may actually help Trump.  If Rule 40 stands, only Trump and Cruz are on the ballot.  The 1st vote is where Trump will have the most bound delegates.  If he’s 50 short, then all he’ll need is 50 of the unbound delegates to get this done. On the 2nd ballot, he’ll will drop a lot of bound delegates and he’ll never get them back.

However, if the Rule 40 stands, there’s a lot of uncertainty as what happens to the delegates that were bound to candidates that didn’t make it on the 1st ballot.  Do they become suddenly unbound?  In 2012, any votes for Ron Paul were not counted.   According to the Rules, they were bound to a candidate whose votes were going to be counted.  Yes, they were mad.  So if that happens again, then leaving Rule 40 the same doesn’t really help Trump unless they tweak it to unbound the bound.  They may do that. There is just reason to do so.  Why should delegates be bound to a candidate that has dropped out of the race, especially if their candidate isn’t even going to have his votes counted?

Now changing Rule 40 to let everybody in may help Trump if he’s already made a backroom deal.  This would require that on the 1st ballot, nobody wins, and on the 2nd ballot Trump must woo enough delegates to him to make up for the 2nd ballot losses plus more to get to the majority.  A backroom deal would have to manifest itself in the Establishment candidates trying hold sway over their delegates.  For example, Kasich delegates will stay with Kasich wherever he tells them to go.  However, there’s just not enough numbers for this.

An educated guess would be that Trump would want to keep the threshold in Rule 40 but change it in such a way that the disenfranchised bound will be unbound, and as a thanks, he’ll hopefully win a few more to take him over the top on the first ballot.

5armyBlackwell-article

Blackwell the Red

Morton Blackwell may play one of the biggest roles in this battle at the Rules Committee.  Who’s Morton Blackwell?  He’s been a delegate involved with the rules since 1972.  There isn’t a more knowledgeable person in the country on this matter.  Also, he’s been very instrumental in trying to fix the rule changes from 2012 that were so destructive to the party.  As of March 31st, he is still very engaged and very much ready to fix the problems in the rules.

Blackwell is a Cruz supporter.  One would have thought that he’d want to keep the rules the same to keep everybody off the ballot except Cruz and Trump and let the best man win.  Well, that’s not how it works.  His life long ambition has been to de-centralize the power in the Republican Party.  This guy is an amazing Patriot that has fought all his life to keep the power out of the hands of the elite.  It would be hypocritical of him to change course on this just because his guy is on top.  Principles and the safety of the republic are more important.  If Blackwell gets the 2012 rules rolled back he deserves much praise.

Blackwell’s article, Rules at the 2016 Republican National Convention, is a bit difficult to understand if you don’t concentrate.  So below is a quick summary:

No matter how tempting it is to cut Kasich out of this thing, it is in the best interests of the grassroots, and the Republican Party that the Romney Rules be rescinded.  Here’s a direct quote from the article:

Our Party adopted the “threshold” rule to prevent delay of our national conventions by nominating speeches and floor demonstrations, without any thought or intent to deprive legitimate Delegates of the right to vote for candidates they support or for whom they were bound by their state party primaries.

In the article, Blackwell outlined what happened in the latest Standing Rules Committee meeting back in January 2016.  In Summary, he moved to change the rules to ensure that all votes be counted, whether they are for someone that qualifies or not.  It almost passed, but in the end it was reconsidered and tabled.  The Spring meeting is at the end of April.  Morton will no doubt try again.

5armyCruz-articleEdwardruil Cruz

Cruz has a tremendous advantage here.  The momentum is already going in the direction of a rule change.  Kasich being so confident may signify that the Establishment is aiming for a rule change.  Morton Blackwell and those that trust him are also pushing for a rule change.  The grassroots is so ticked off at what Romney did four years ago, they want the rules changed.  All Cruz has to do is lead it up.

He obviously has enough delegates that prefer him, bound or unbound.  So it is possible for him to win this if he plays his cards right.  He must be careful of getting outflanked in the Convention Rules Committee.  Cruz’s best place to win is at the second ballot, so he must get there.  So it’s in Cruz’s best interest to change the rules back to the way it was before the 2012 Convention.  There are some awesome positives to this:

What about the negatives?  Well, no doubt, Trump is going to do what he did in Colorado: squeal like a stuck pig!  “Look!  There it is again!  They’re changing the rules!  Cruz and the Establishment is in league!  He’s a corrupt politician!”   The mob outside the convention is going to have a fit.  There might be blood.  Delegates are going to be intimidated.  Trump will cuss.  Everything he’s done so far, he will do tenfold.  At this point, who cares?  What if he goes third party?  Good Riddance.  Will he hurt Cruz’s chances in the general?  Who knows?

5armyKasich-articleKasich, the Dwarf

Kasich is by far the smallest one in the race.  If Kasich really wants to win the Presidency…  That’s debatable; but IF he really wants to win, he’s going to have to get on that ballot first.  There’s only one way for him to do that.  Change the rules.   He’s got to get that threshold lowered down. Any other position on this would confirm that he’s a low-down conniving rat in league with Donald the Defiler.  And that would expose the Establishment as the wicked back-room deal-makers that they are.  This would reveal him to be more of a Nikabrik than a Balin, which of course is all together another story.

Here’s an interesting article: Karl Rove-backed PAC warms to Trump:  The strategist publicly questions Trump’s electability, but privately his PAC tells donors Trump can win.  Also, Don’t forget how Trump and Kasich box Cruz out in Michigan for the two Rules Committee positions.  Hmmm?  Go figure.

On the first ballot, if the threshold is left in a manner that only Cruz and Trump are eligible, Trump should have the easiest time getting to the 1237.  Cruz probably can’t.  Trump can.  If the threshold is lowered, mathematically Trump’s chances really don’t change.  The only way to benefit, is for the Trump campaign not just to fight to keep the rules the same, but they must lobby to unbind the disenfranchised bound delegates in the interest of being fair.

Can that be done?  Maybe.  But it may be offered as a so-called “fix” to the Romney Rule.  “Your candidate is still not eligible, but we promise we’ll count your vote, like we always have.  Right Morton?”  It’s possible that Trump might try it.  If Kasich is on board, you’ll know where the Establishment has been hanging out, and you’re about to graduate from Trump University.  It still seems unlikely, being that Kasich just doesn’t have a lot of delegates to pull this off.  He’d need some very influential entrenched Establishment delegates to do this; and maybe some Cruz delegates that aren’t up to snuff to what he’s trying to do.

Also, remember that of the 10 contested conventions that the Republicans have had, in six of them the nomination was given to an underdog.  Five of them went on to win the Presidency.  Abraham Lincoln was one of them and had 22% of the delegates.  All the others had less that what Kasich has now (12%).

5armyRyan-articleRyan the Dragon-Slayer

Sorry, not this time, Bard!  You notice in the movie Bard and the men and women of Lake Town really didn’t have much of an impact on the war.  They had no armor.  They were weak and frail.  They were few in number.  They just really didn’t accomplish much in the battle.  Well, neither is Paul Ryan.

There’s no way on this green earth that the 2016 delegates are going to allow a non-candidate to just waltz in and take the Presidency.  It’s never happened in the history of the Republican Party and it never will.  They’re never going to give this Paul Ryan fantasy up.  They may give up on Ryan and just stick another name in there.  It’s still a bluff, conceived and perpetuated by Trump and the Establishment, just to create confusion to get people’s eyes off the real battle of the Rules.

In The Great Bluff, and subsequent articles, it was believed that Trump would want the rule changed and Cruz would not want the rule change.  This is partly because at one point Cruz did say that he didn’t think a rule change was good.  And it was assumed that Rubio delegates were Establishment.  However, Marco Rubio told Mark Levin the other night that he wanted his delegates to stay bound to him on the first ballot.  This may not mean anything.  But it may signify where the contention lies.  Why would he be worried about someone unbinding his delegates unless someone was threatening to unbind his delegates?  So the thesis is modified.  In the battle, Cruz will want the rules changed.  Trump will probably not want the threshold changed, just manipulated a bit to loose up some delegates.  Confused?  Good.

More Developments

December 30, 2015

More Smoke

April 11, 2016

There’s more propagation of The Great Bluff in the news, some of it coming from very credible people.  Let me explain how this works.  The people that want this information to gain credence will hint at it and maybe suggest it.  These people would be Trumpsters and Establishment type.  That’s all they have to do.  They are in league and want this information to come out even though it’s not true.  And truly this is probably just PART of an overall plan of chaos and accusations that they’re running.  The rest is taken care of the ones that fear that most, real grassroots conservatives.

For example, here’s Michelle Malkin from Conservative Review: Watch: Slickster Paul Ryan Wants to Choose GOP Nominee:

Now it looks like he wants to sashay and brown nose his way into the GOP presidential nomination without having to lift a finger to earn it.  GOP party bosses like loser John Boehner and Utah Big Government Republican Sen. Orrin Hack, I mean, Hatch, are talking up Ryan as the only one who can unite the party at a brokered convention.

No it doesn’t look like he wants to do that.  It’s understandable that the Establishment should absolutely not be trusted.  The Establishment is not just the GOP.  It’s not just what the Establishment Republicans want.  It’s what the whole Democratic AND Republican Establishment wants.  No, we don’t want Paul Ryan in there, but what needs to be discovered is what deals Trump, the deal-maker, has already made; particularly with the Establishment.

American Thinker has an all-out Paul Ryan Plan article:  An improbable white knight for the GOP:

All Republicans under the “big tent” need to begin to wrap their minds around the idea that the eventual nominee may be someone (and I would argue should be) who has not before been a candidate.

No we don’t NEED to wrap our mind around this load of putrescence.  Notice the “and I would argue should be” part he sticks in there.  So obviously, this article is about the writer’s fantasies and not reality.  Once again, like all the people who push this, there’s is no explanation as to HOW this going to be done.  How is this going to be done when you have to get a majority of the 2472 delegates to agree to this, when 80% of them are raging mad anti-Establishment delegates?  Good luck.  Kasich getting on that ballot is the goal.  Don’t forget that.

Now even Mark Levin is repeating this stuff.  Mark Levin is the best.  But here it is:  The Establishments Man is Paul Ryan.  However, Mark is absolutely right in his characterization of the Establishment.  They can’t be trusted.  They’ll do anything to keep power, even throw the election.  Take Cruz out at the convention, and take Trump out in the general.

Breitbart, the Trump propaganda machine, passes on an article by the New York times and entitles it:  New York Times: Paul Ryan Wages Parallel Campaign.   This is proof that Breitbart is twisting information out there and intentionally perpetuating this RUMOR that Paul Ryan is running for President.  Breitbart’s is missing half of the REAL title:  “a Mirage Candidate.”  The full title reads from the New York Times:  Ryan, a Mirage Candidate, Wages a Parallel Campaign.  Breitbart title insinuates that the article is about how Paul Ryan is running for President.  But if you actually read the article, you’ll find the article is about how Paul Ryan is NOT running for President:

Mr. Ryan is indeed at the center of a national campaign — one he calls “Confident America” — but it is NOT NECESSARILY for president… Mr. Ryan is creating a personality and policy alternative to run alongside the presidential effort — one that provides a foundation to rebuild if Republicans splinter and lose in the fall.

Details.  Details.  Details.  Think about this:  If you wanted to inform people that Paul Ryan is indeed NOT running for President, why do you put a stupid title like that on your article?  It doesn’t take a genius to see how that title is going to be misconstrued.  This is how you report factual information, yet direct public opinion the opposite direction.  It’s intentional.

More Truth

Steave Deace, from Conservative Review, has an excellent article:  5 Election Questions You’ve Been Asking (And the Answers).  Now remember Steve Deace is the guy who called the Iowa primary almost to a T; and that’s when there were 17 candidates in the race.  He’s very insightful and trustworthy.

3) Won’t the RNC just change the rules at the convention to put an establishment guy in?

Any rules changes at the convention must be approved by a MAJORITY vote in Cleveland. It’s looking pretty obvious a majority of the delegates there will be Cruz’s, and they’re obviously not going to vote for rules changes that hurt their candidate. Most of this is paranoia driven by two groups: establishment hacks trying to be relevant again, and Trump hacks who are trying to stall Cruz’s delegate momentum by spreading this around. Ignore it. We’re winning. We just need to finish the game

Need more be said?  Steave calls it paranoia.  “Paranoia driven by two groups: establishment… and Trump hacks…”  Is that not we’ve been saying all along.  Here’s another article backing us up by  Andrew C. McCarthy, PJMedia;  Trump, Mr. ‘Win, Win, Win!’, Doesn’t Know How to Play – Even When the Game Goes His Way

The rules for 2016 state contests have not been changed in midstream; they have been known from the start. How each campaign applies them tells us a great deal that we need to know about the candidates. That is why it is a fantasy to believe the GOP establishment can get away with rigging the convention process to insert a white knight candidate who has not been campaigning. The only way to run for president is to run for president.

Even More Tuth

So if Paul Ryan is not really who the Establishment wants in there, then what are they up to.  Trump’s ONLY hope at this point in the game is to make a deal with the Establishment. Why not?  Hasn’t he bragged about how he’s been doing that all his life?  The deal is already made.  The rules will be changed one way or another in the coming months.  Trump will lobby for Kasich and Rubio delegates in order to secure the nomination.  If the rules change and Kasich and Rubio are on the ballot, it’s possible they may sway their delegates to Trump in exchange for…  something.  What?  Power.  Position.  Influence.  Who knows?   Vice-President?  The Establishment’s gain will be Trump’s loss in the general election. Here’s something on the Trump/Kasich deal from RedState:  Time for John Kasich to Get his Very Own Scarlet “T”

But more to the point, John Kasich has now actively helped Donald Trump secure delegates. This is more even than Corey Lewandowksi, Trump’s own campaign manager has done. John Kasich is now an active ally of Donald Trump. And for that, he gets to wear a scarlet “T” for the rest of his life.

The deal will have already been made, and the Kasich and Rubio would have to throw their weight before the convention begins to get themselves on the ballot.  They’d have to join forces with Trump to get the rules changed.   Cruz’s position will probably be that the rules are set and shouldn’t be changed at this point.  In this article by Breitbart, Dave Bossie: Trump ‘Wanted to Run a Different Kind of Campaign’ and ‘That’s Going to Come Back to Haunt Him’, Dave Bossie says the following:

“The only way for the rules to change is for the full convention to vote on them,” Bossie argued.  “The delegates — the Cruz delegates, the Trump delegates — have to vote to approve that.  And even if, like I was saying earlier, some of those delegates are truly not Trump or Cruz delegates, there has to be a majority willing to change the rules in order to do it.  And if that does not happen, then either Trump or Cruz will be the nominee.  That’s the ball we all have to keep our eye on.”

In order for the Establishment to pull this off, SOME of Trump delegates, SOME of Kasich and Rubio delegates, along with SOME of Morton Blackwell’s Crusaders must be strong enough to lower the threshold to get Kasich’s and Rubio’s delegates on the ballot.  Once they’re in, it’s Bye Bye Cruz.  UNLESS, Cruz has amassed enough delegates to block a rule change before or after the important vote on the Convention floor to ratify the rules.  He might not have enough delegates to keep the rules the same.  But he might have enough to win on the second ballot.  Oooo Scarwey!

 

 

 

 

 

The Rules Are Fixing to Change

December 29, 2015

rulesThe Standing Rules Committee

April 10, 2016

Remember, the first way the rules can change will be at the standing rules committee which has been meeting since the 2012 Convention.  Morton Blackwell, who’s been part of the Rules Committee since 1856 (kidding), has actively been trying to change the rules back to the way they were before the 2012 Convention.  In fact, his March 8th article, Rules at the 2016 Republican National Convention, explains very clearly that he was ALMOST successful in getting the rules changed in the RNC Winter Meeting.  Of course, back in January, we wanted those rules changed.  Now, we really don’t.  At first, leaving them the same sounded good because it would cut Kasich out of the race.  However, Morton is trying to change them for the good of the country.  He’s trying to de-centralize the party, and help the grassroots.  Helping the grassroots, however, in this race helps Johnny Boy, because right now he’s stuck in the grass.

Also, if you listen to Mark Levin’s March 31st interview with Morton Blackwell, you’ll see that there’s no indication in that interview that Morton is going to change course or stand down: Mark Levin interviews Morton Blackwell about the RNC rules,  In the article by Matthew Hurtt, from RedState in 2013, Undoing the ‘Ginsberg’ rules at the Spring RNC meeting, Morton has every intention of changing those rules; to open them up more for grassroots candidates.  Hint: Let Kasich on the ballot.  Is Morton FOR Kasich?  No, he’s a Cruz supporter.  See:  Please join me in supporting Ted Cruz.

Here’s another article regarding the rules change: GOP panelists eager to scrap rule that helps Trump. There’s a misconception in this article that the current rules help Trump.  The current eight state majority rule does NOT help Trump.  It would help him if he was way in front and Cruz was not so close on his heels.  As of this weekend, Cruz is on the ballot; he has a majority in eight states.  Because of Trump’s lack of national campaign infrastructure and Cruz’s amazing ground game and ability to secure 2nd and 3rd ballot delegates, the current rules actually hurt Trump.  So he NEEDS them changed.  Luckily for him, there’s enough delegates, and a Morton Blackwell, out there that are so mad at the Romney campaign, they don’t realize that they may likely shoot themselves in the foot by scrapping these rules.  Yuck.

When is the next Standing Rule Committee Meeting?

In Spring.  Sorry, that’s all that’s out there.  There’s a Spring Meeting.  In Morton’s March 8th article (mentioned above) he states that it’s at the end of the month of April.  However, Hurtt’s article (mentioned above) states that it’s April 10th – 13th.  That’s today!  It’s supposed to be in Los Angeles, California, according to the article.  (Sorry that was a 2013 article)  Also found was an article at the DailyCaller, RNC Rules Member: Expect ‘Tweaks’ To Rules At Upcoming Florida Meeting,  that says that it’s 2 weeks from this past Thursday (4/7/16) in Hollywood, Florida.  The Establishment doesn’t really want anything reported on this anyway.  They’re going to want to shape the public perception of the outcome.

Kasich’s Hand is Showing

This Friday, in Michigan, something interesting happened that suggest a foreshadowing of things to come.  Apparently, Trump and Kasich joined forced in Michigan to keep Cruz delegates from getting important Convention positions.  According to the CNN article, Trump, Kasich box out Cruz in Michigan delegation:

The Michigan delegation picked one Trump supporter, Matt Hall, and one Kasich supporter, Judi Schwalbach, for the two seats on the powerful rules committee. The Cruz campaign lost votes for both seats.

Oh what do you know?  How convenient: Trump and Kasich delegates working together to have power over the rules.  Newsmax includes a quote from the Cruz side of things, Cruz Campaign: Trump, Kasich Plotting Against Us, Wendy Day, a Cruz delegate:

The Kasich and Trump teams actually cut a deal and took all those slots.  We couldn’t get any of them. That’s fine, it’s politics, but it was interesting to see those two campaigns team up.

This fella at RedState explains exactly what the plan is in his article, More Proof Kasich Stays in only to do Trump’s Bidding:

It looks more and more like the double-crossing Spoiling Kasich is campaigning to be the Donald’s running mate.

So others are seeing the inevitable union of Trump and Kasich.  Do they need to unite to change the rules?  Not if Morton Blackwell has anything to do with it.  It’s very confusing.  People pushing to keep them the same will probably be the ones that were angry that they were changed.  And people wanting them changed will be the ones who changed them and will unite with ones that were angry that they were changed.  Make sense?  Yes, It’s going to be chaos.

What’s underhanded about it, is Trump is claiming that he’s anti-Establishment, and Kasich is out there saying that he’s going to be the next President;  when both of them are lying through their teeth. The deal is already made.  Think about this.  Cruz already this week clenched his eighth state with the majority of delegates and he’s bound to win a few more.  He DOES NOT NEED a rule change to get on the ballot.  Kasich does.  He’s acting like he’s going to be on the ballot, because he’s made the deal already to get on the ballot; he obviously has expectations.  Trump is the one losing delegates and everybody and their mother knows he will lose at the contested convention, unless he comes up with some delegates.  Kasich and Rubio have delegates for sale.  Trump needs some.

So it’s a trap.  Tea Party, grassroots, conservative people have long wanted the rules of the convention changed to get more power coming from the bottom.  And any other time, they would say, “Yes, change the rules!”  But old Johnny Boy is at the bottom right now.  And he’s Establishment.  He only wants in to take out Cruz.  Very slippery slope.  Now, it’s unclear how many of Kasich delegates will stay loyal to him and do his bidding at the second and third ballot and go to Trump; but it sure smells like a rat.

The Bluff is Still On

Anyhow, the bluff is still going strong.  Check out this headline from Trump surrogate, Breitbart:  ‘The Immaculate Nomination’.  And of course, there’s a picture of Paul Ryan waiting to be anointed the Republican nominee.  Apparently this name has been coined by the Obama administration.  This is simply Establishment propaganda.   There’s no truth to it.

Meanwhile, we still have Rush pushing the false narrative:  Anti-Trumpsters Buoyed by Trump’s Decision to Cancel Trips, Stay in NY

Paul Ryan continues to say, “No way, no way,” but is producing an ad now. I told you yesterday, if you want to find out what’s really going on, keep a sharp eye on the media. You’ll start seeing stories, personality profiles on Ryan. “What a great guy Ryan is!” Stuff on the family, how hard he’s worked, Speaker of the House. We’re not electing speakers of the House. If you start seeing things like that, it could be an indication that they are making a move or planning on a move at a contested convention.

Paul Ryan is never going to be on the ballot.  His brother, David Limbaugh, does get it though and does an excellent job explaining the ramifications of this bluff.  He was interview by Hannity regarding this impossibility:  Trump campaign capitalizes on ‘New York values’ comments; Mike Huckabee: John Kasich should not drop out of the race.  Hannity puts the bluff out there:

HANNITY:  Let me — let me go to an issue that I think you guys are actually going to agree on.  You know, if you look at John Boehner’s comments, talking about a contested convention and he brings up, Oh, anybody can be — anybody’s name can be nominated on the convention floor, and Karl Rove saying, Well, We need somebody who’s battle tested, strong conservative principles, a fresh face — he’s not — he’s talking specifically about somebody that hasn’t run….

HANNITY:  Do you think that there’s a possibility the establishment will try to disenfranchise voters of Trump and Cruz?

Well, some do agree:

GUILFOYLE:  Yes, I think there’s a real, distinct possibility that could happen…

COHEN:  … I agree with her 100 percent…

But David does NOT agree and says the truth about THE BLUFF:

LIMBAUGH:  There are certain people in the Republican Party who fantasize about that, who hate both Trump and Cruz.  But I don’t think it’s a realistic possibility.  As Newt says, when those two, Trump and Cruz, have received some 80 percent of the delegates and 80 percent of the votes, it’s not realistic.

Reince Priebus is talking about it not being realistic.  There’s no monolithic force in the GOP establishment that has set out to do that.  I think they know better than to do that.  It would be the end of the Republican Party.

He goes on to explain the purpose of the bluff.  You see, he’s nailed it and doesn’t really know that he’s nailed it.  Look at that expression he uses:  “…it obscures the fact…”  That, my friend is the definition of a bluff.  Read on.

I think the problem with talking about this so much — and people can talk all they want about it — is that it obscures the fact that there can be a genuine fight in the convention if nobody ends up with 1,237 going in, and I want there to be a fair fight.

Cruz and Trump can fight after the first ballot, after the second ballot in a fair way, a legitimate way, in a way that regards process and the law and the rules.  And whoever wins is legitimate as long as there’s no shenanigans pulled.

And I don’t want it to be perceived if Ted Cruz ends up winning… because he pays attention to details… that he was part of the establishment.

But guess what?  That’s exactly how they’re going to try to paint it.  Cruz is trying to pull shenanigans!  Cruz is trying to steal the election!  Look at this article that came out already:  Trump Convention Manager: Cruz Using ‘Gestapo Tactics’ to Win Over Delegates.  Trump is already threatening riot and chaos if he doesn’t get his way at the convention: Trump’s Convention Strategy: “The Fix Is In”  He’ll try his best to delegitimize Cruz and obscure the fact that Cruz has emerged the strongest candidate, the most honest, and what the American people really want.

 

Distraction on Both Sides

December 28, 2015

gcbcApril 8, 2016

As outlined in The Great Bluff, the conversation revolving around the Establishment dropping in a non-candidate into the convention mix is a bluff.  It may not be, but it may be.  So I want to keep track of all that’s going on out there to perpetuate this bluff.  On one side, you’re going to have the fear-mongering and finger-pointing saying “The Establishment is going to put Ryan in!”; knowing full well that it’s mechanically impossible.  On the other side, you’re going to have the Establishment confirming and perpetuating these fears saying, “Yeah, that’s exactly what we’re gonna do!”; all while knowing full well that it’s mechanically impossible.  They’ve been successful so far in amplifying this rhetoric in order to make getting Kasich on the ballot look like a compromise.

News has circulated around Paul Ryan’s new video, Politics These Days.  Drudge Report offers up their analysis:  PAUL RYAN LAUNCHES FIRST CAMPAIGN AD?    Of course, Drudge is obviously a Trump surrogate.  Drudge’s part of the bluff is to continue the narrative that the Establishment is trying to sneakily drop in Ryan as a candidate at the convention.  This is despite the fact, that no one on earth has yet to explain how they’re going to do that.  Paul Ryan’s part in this is unclear.  Is he complicit in making videos that can be interpreted in this fashion?  I think it’s a bit of a stretch.  If anything, the video seems to be more anti-Trump and truly a stump for Cruz.  If he’s complicit, he makes the video to feed speculations, and then acts like he did when they accused him of wanting the Speaker position:  Just keep saying no.  And everyone goes nuts:  “See, it’s the same.  He must want to be President!”  And Ryan just keeps it going.  And the supposed “anti-Establishment” keeps accusing.  The Breitbart echo’s the call with more propaganda: CAMPAIGN AD?  Funny, you never really see Cruz people perpetuating this.  It’s usually Trump people.  So that’s one side:  The side that accuses and fear-mongers and finger-points.  Look at this headline today (4/8/16) on Breitbart:  Wash Post’s Robert Costa: ‘Party Elite’ Could Turn to Paul Ryan ‘in a Chaos Situation in Cleveland’.

On the other side, you got articles like this: Rasmussen Poll: Ryan Would Lose to Clinton/Sanders.  Now what does this truly accomplish?  This is put out there to feed the anger about Ryan taking the nomination.  Yes, if somehow somebody figured out a way to get Ryan on the ballot, everybody would be hopping mad.  Even just suggesting it gets the same effect.  It gets Trump people mad.  It gets Cruz people mad.  So this article feeds that anger.  It confirms the accusations, the fear-mongering, and finger-pointing.  “You see what happens if the Establishment succeeds?  We got to stop them!”  This article is designed to get people talking and keep talking about something that will never happen.  Here’s another one: Rick Santorum: GOP Race Still Wide Open.  The writer states, “Santorum pointed out the possibility that delegates at the convention could choose a nominee that is not in the race.”  Didn’t Rick endorse Rubio?  Rubio hasn’t endorsed anybody and has not released his delegates.  Why?  Trump NEEDS Kasich and Rubio delegates.  A deal on the convention floor could hand those to him.

How about Rush?  He’s probably on neither side, but he eats this up and keeps repeating it.  Look what he’s still saying right now (4/9/2016):

…If any of you are wondering what the establishment is gonna do and what they’re doing in preparation for a contested convention, and if they are, whom are they thinking of putting up, who would they like to be the nominee, there’s a way to find out what they’re doing.  All you have to do is read The Politico.  That’s where the Republican Party goes to leak things.

The second thing to do is to keep a sharp eye on — I’ll give you just a list of names as an example.  Ryan, Walker, Romney, Jeb.  If you start seeing in the media news stories that are essentially puff piece profiles, if you start seeing news stories about what has Jeb been doing since he got out, and how is Jeb reacting to it, and what’s Jeb planning for his future. Or about Scott Walker, or about Ryan, if you see news stories where there is an attempt to build the case for somebody and you wonder, “What’s this about?”  They’re floating possibilities.

This is where you read between the lines and you figure out what they’re trying to pull off. And that’s how you can identify if there is somebody that they have singled out that they do want to nominate in a contested convention, just watch and see which Republican establishment types are getting a lot of it news coverage, the kind of coverage that would serve the purpose of establishing a reputation, establishing qualifications, establishing a sense of purpose.  Yes, they might not have made it throughout the primaries, but has learned a lot and has stayed involved, is closely watching events and wants to do anything possible to help the party.

If you start seeing stories like that about anybody, that will be a good indication what the power brokers are thinking.  I think we’ve seen that with Ryan.  We’ve seen a lot of stories about Ryan…

So you have this false narrative being trumpeted by both sides.  Trumpsters are accusing the Establishment on one side, and you got little hints coming from the Establishment that the accusations are true.  Ping Pong Bluff Tactic.  Good cop. Bad Cop.  It’s all false.  It will never happen.  Especially, because Cruz is very close to locking down the eight state delegate majority.  If you look at delegate count right now (as of April 7-8,9), you’ll see that Cruz has locked down a majority of delegates in seven states.  The eighth one is Colorado and he’s getting very close to the majority this very moment:  “Republican presidential candidate Sen. Ted Cruz picks up another three delegates in Colorado’s district 7 on Thursday, with another four districts voting and state level Republican party voting this weekend.”  Once he locks down the eight state majority threshold, then he doesn’t NEED a rule change to get on the ballot, like Kasich does.  His delegates can lobby and vote to keep the rules as is, go into the contested convention and win this thing. (That’s if Trump, Kasich, and Rubio delegates don’t unite to change the rule.  Why not?  We’ll get you on that ballot and in the VP spot if you push your delegates our way)

The reality is that the front runners have the real power to change the rules or keep the rules the same.  You’ve got Reince telling people over and over what the rules are:  He’s states, “It’s not like the Rules Committee is going to come together and say, now it’s no states.  They take all of the recommendations to the convention and the majority of delegates accept it.”  As I’ve stated before, all these delegates are anti-Establishment delegates.  There is no way they’re going to vote themselves off the ballot or some no-name on the ballot.  So all the chaos and fear-mongering is a smoke-screen.  It’s cover for the fact that all they really want is Kasich on the ballot; not to win mind you, but for Trump to win.   Their strategy is to take out Cruz in the convention and Trump in the general.

 

UPDATE: (1:06 PM 4/8/16)  Look at this junk:  Conservatives Eye Gen. James Mattis as Presidential Alternative   The writer states:  “This summer’s Republican National Convention will have to be contested in order for Mattis to land on the presidential ballot.”  Yet if you actually read what the Daily Beast article he’s referring to, it has absolutely nothing to do with the RNC.  They’re talking about Mattis going 3rd Party.

The Great Bluff

December 27, 2015

The Fresh Face?

img_angif-poker-face-scen02April 7, 2016

This whole notion that Establishment is going to parachute some non-candidate into the convention is a bluff.  They are practicing the “Art of the Deal.”   They are proposing something that is so far out of the scope of what is possible in hopes of getting something in the middle.  This strategy is a bluff because it’s something that has NEVER happened in the history of the Republican Party, and it never will happen.  John Boehner said “If we don’t have a nominee who can win on the first ballot, I’m for none of the above. They all had a chance to win. None of them won. So I’m for none of the above. I’m for Paul Ryan to be our nominee.”  John Boehner was the Chairman of the 2008 and 2012 convention.  He knows full well that this parachute notion is impossible.  Karl Rove said, “…a fresh face might be the thing that could give us a chance to turn this election and win in November.”  Karl Rove the ultimate establishment insider, he’s been through this numerous times.  He also knows full well that this will never happen.

How do we know this won’t happen?  How do we know it’s impossible?  First, it never has happened in the history of the Republican Party.  Ever since the Civil War, this has never happened.  The nomination has always been given to a candidate that was on the 1st ballot at the convention.  Secondly, the current rules absolutely do no allow it.  The only way the Establishment can drop someone new in is to CHANGE THE RULES.  There’s four ways to amend the rules:

Ultimately though, to make the rules effectual from the 2016 convention forward, the majority of these 2473 delegates must vote to ratify the entire set of rules before the convention continues.  So in the end, it makes no difference who, what, or when the rules are amended, the delegates must vote to make them effectual.  So there is no way on God’s green earth that all these delegates (a grand majority of which are bound to anti-Establishment candidates) are going to vote to bring in an Establishment non-candidate like Ryan or Romney that hasn’t run the entire campaign season.  No way.  No how.  Forget about it.

Fortunately, on Tuesday, Jamie Dupree and Newt Gingrich finally corrected Hannity about this nonsense. Newsmax wrote: ‘Gingrich said Trump and Cruz will enter the convention with 80 percent of the delegates, and have no incentive to change a current rule that requires someone to have won the most votes in at least eight states to secure the nomination. Why, he asked, would they “give it to some nice person who didn’t run, didn’t raise money, didn’t debate, didn’t win delegates but what the heck? ‘He’s really,’ or ‘she’s really, a terrific person.’ I mean, even in a novel you couldn’t get away with this.”‘  It will be interesting to see if Rush and Hannity will keep parroting this false strategy.

Why bluff?

So why would Establishment types keep pushing this narrative?  Why would they keep saying that they want to do something they know they can’t do?  They are proposing something that is so far out of the scope of what is possible in hopes of getting something in the middle that IS possible.  What is possible?  The only remote possibility they have of affecting this nomination and thus the presidency lies in Kasich.  That’s why he’s still in there.  As the rules stand now, there is no way for Kasich to get on the ballot.  He has not won a majority of delegates in eight states.  That’s just not going to happen either.  So the establishment’s only hope is to get a rule change that will allow Kasich on the ballot.  This is not so that Kasich can win, but so that Kasich and Trump can broker a deal on the convention floor and Trump can win.

So the bluffing serves two purposes:  First, it caused an unwarranted fear of a contested convention and of the establishment.  In that respect it worked.  Sean Hannity parroted this bologna 20 times a day for the past 2 months and has tried endlessly to scare people into believing that the Establishment is going to “leap frog” some non-candidate into the mix.  Rush Limbaugh bit too.  Every episode he made sure to tell us that the Establishment’s plan was to parachute in a savior.  It is their hope that this fear will cause people to coalesce around Trump so he can win outright on the 1st ballot.  Now, whether or not Sean and Rush did this intentionally or out of ignorance, I’ll let you decide.  Well, it didn’t work: just like all their other plans this season.  Secondly, and more realistically, is to distract from the inevitable rule change that will let their man in on the 1st ballot.

Now, note that there has been a push since 2012 to change the rules in this manner.  The kicker is that it hasn’t come from the Establishment.  In 2012 rule 40 was tightened up by the Establishment (a majority of the delegates voted to change this rule on the convention floor, the grand majority of them were Romney delegates, so go figure).  It was tightened up to keep Ron Paul off the ballot.  Subsequently, Ron Paul delegates were completely disenfranchised.  They couldn’t vote, their vote was not counted, and they were completely ignored when the numbers were announced.  So rightly so, they were pretty mad.  They’re still mad.  So this January, for the second time that I know of, at the standing rules committee meeting, this issue was brought up and the rules were actually amended.  But at the last second, it was motioned to reconsider, and it was shot down.

Why?  At that point in time, January, no primaries or caucuses had taken place, and the Establishment was still thinking they could run this like they always have and wanted the rules to stay the same.  But since then, Whoops! Jeb Bush is out. Christie is out. Rubio is out.  Now, the two front runners are Trump and Cruz and the last man they got is Kasich.  Oh the irony!  The same rule they put in to keep Ron Paul out is the same one that keeps their last hope out.  There’s another standing rules committee meeting at the end of April.  It will be very interesting to hear what song the Establishment is singing then.

Now, they HAVE to change the rules; but not for the sake of winning.  There’s no way Kasich can win (I’ll explain later).  The Establishment has already lost.  They know it’s either Trump or Cruz now.  So keep in mind that the Establishment’s definition of winning is not necessarily a Republican in the White House.  Some of them have flat out said that they’d vote for Hillary over Trump.  Their strategy is to take Cruz out at the convention and Trump out in the general.  So they’re bluffing about this whole parachute a non-candidate fresh face in to distract from the real fight:  Rule 40.  I just read an article about how Ron Paul’s people are running the Pro-Trump PACs   There’s already a move to change Rule 40 on the basis and interest of fairness.  It’s very likely that establishment people in standing rules committee will say, “Well there was a lot of support for this in January, and it wasn’t fair for 2012 Paul delegates, and we believe that yes we should let every candidate’s delegates be counted and announced.  The fair thing to do is open up Rule 40.”

They’re going to try to pull this off; and it is reasonable.  Any sensible person would agree.  It’s not fair that delegates that are bound to vote for candidates by the national convention, state convention, and the vote of the people be prevented from casting their vote.  They should at the very least be allowed to vote for whom they are bound to vote for.  It makes sense.  They are most likely going to change the threshold (Rule 40:  eight-state majority of delegates).  The question will be where will that threshold land?  If they roll it back to 2012 rules, the threshold would be that the candidate must win five states; they must get the plurality of the delegates in five states.  Sounds good, but if this still disenfranchises Kasich delegates, and Rubio delegates for that matter, then what’s the point?  So there will be a moral argument to lower the threshold enough to at least let the people who are still running show up on the 1st ballot.  And the Establishment knows and will take advantage of the non-Establishment’s dedication to morality!  Will the amendment pass?   That is yet to be determined.  When it gets to the convention floor and the 2473 delegates vote on these rules, will a majority vote in favor?  That’s yet to be determined.

So the bluff is a distraction and leverage to change Rule 40 to their favor.  It will show the world how willing they are to compromise and be fair to ALL the candidates.  The Trojan horse is FAIRNESS.  Sneaky?  Yes.

If the bluff works?

In other words, what if Kasich gets on the ballot?  Not good.  The Establishment’s intentions are for Trump to offer Kasich the Vice-Presidential position in return for his delegates.  There may be some deal for Rubio too.  The delegates will eventually be free to vote their conscience.  However, where they go will have a lot to do with what deals are brokered.  That’s why it’s called a brokered convention.  Most likely, the deal is already made.  Trump, the great deal maker, knows that one on one with Cruz is a losing proposition.  He needs the Establishment to win in a contested convention.  He’s getting desperate now because he’s sinking in the polls.  He’s leaking unbound delegates.  He’s leaking bound delegates. Cruz is gaining momentum and winning delegates.  The only way to win is to make a deal with the Establishment.  Trump wants to win, so he’ll make the deal.  The Establishment doesn’t want to win.  They want to stay in power.  If they can get Kasich on the ballot and swing all his delegates and anybody else to Trump, then they destroy Cruz.  That’s a win for the Establishment.  They can show everyone how well they unify and support the nominee.  Trump goes on to the general election and loses.  That’s a win for the Establishment.  Nothing would make them happier than to have a Democrat in the White House.  Then they can stay RINOs and kick political footballs around for another 4 years.

Another thing to consider is the track record of a front-runner going into a contested convention like Trump is:  There have been ten contested conventions in the history of the RNC.  Four of those ten, the nomination has gone to the front runner, the candidate with the plurality of the delegates.  Of those four, every single one of them lost the general election.

Now, some people think that the Establishment honestly would want Kasich to win.  And conservative talk and radio go along with this.  This is also a distraction.  They go on and on and on about how delusional Kasich is.  “He has no mathematical chance of winning the nomination!  He’s trying to drag this to a contested convention!  He’s a spoiler!  Why is he still in this race?”  Well here’s why:  Of the ten contested conventions that the party has gone through, in six of them the nomination was given to an underdog.  Five of those six times, the nominee has gone on to actually win the Presidency of the United States.  And surprisingly, five of those six also came into the convention with less delegates that Kasich has now (12%).  And as I said earlier, all of the four front-runners that won the nomination lost the general election.  So, historically speaking, if he could just get on the ballot, Kasich has the greatest chance of winning the Presidency of the three!  Kasich is not delusional.  He’s just historical!

As also previously stated, IF we get to a contested convention with Kasich on the ballot, he still cannot win, despite the fact that history is on his side.  This is because of what he’s up against.  He is not competing against other Establishment candidates like Jeb and Rubio, or other governors like Perry and Walker.  This is a Cruz and Trump convention now.  The vast majority of delegates are bound to vote against the Establishment.  Sorry Johnny!  You’re the outsider now!  We have come to the point of no return.  This is no normal election.

Calling the Bluff

Don’t change the rules.  Leave them as they are.  THAT is fair.  These are the rules they all agree to before this race started.  The only reason to change them is to accommodate some person that doesn’t want to follow the rules.  The rhetoric will soon come that we must be fair and democratic and thus change the rules.  Don’t fall for that mess.  What’s good for the goose is good for the gander.  They wrote the rules.  Let them follow them.