There Is News In The Truth

April 8, 2016

As outlined in The Great Bluff, the conversation revolving around the Establishment dropping in a non-candidate into the convention mix is a bluff.  It may not be, but it may be.  So I want to keep track of all that’s going on out there to perpetuate this bluff.  On one side, you’re going to have the fear-mongering and finger-pointing saying “The Establishment is going to put Ryan in!”; knowing full well that it’s mechanically impossible.  On the other side, you’re going to have the Establishment confirming and perpetuating these fears saying, “Yeah, that’s exactly what we’re gonna do!”; all while knowing full well that it’s mechanically impossible.  They’ve been successful so far in amplifying this rhetoric in order to make getting Kasich on the ballot look like a compromise.

News has circulated around Paul Ryan’s new video, Politics These Days.  Drudge Report offers up their analysis:  PAUL RYAN LAUNCHES FIRST CAMPAIGN AD?    Of course, Drudge is obviously a Trump surrogate.  Drudge’s part of the bluff is to continue the narrative that the Establishment is trying to sneakily drop in Ryan as a candidate at the convention.  This is despite the fact, that no one on earth has yet to explain how they’re going to do that.  Paul Ryan’s part in this is unclear.  Is he complicit in making videos that can be interpreted in this fashion?  I think it’s a bit of a stretch.  If anything, the video seems to be more anti-Trump and truly a stump for Cruz.  If he’s complicit, he makes the video to feed speculations, and then acts like he did when they accused him of wanting the Speaker position:  Just keep saying no.  And everyone goes nuts:  “See, it’s the same.  He must want to be President!”  And Ryan just keeps it going.  And the supposed “anti-Establishment” keeps accusing.  The Breitbart echo’s the call with more propaganda: CAMPAIGN AD?  Funny, you never really see Cruz people perpetuating this.  It’s usually Trump people.  So that’s one side:  The side that accuses and fear-mongers and finger-points.  Look at this headline today (4/8/16) on Breitbart:  Wash Post’s Robert Costa: ‘Party Elite’ Could Turn to Paul Ryan ‘in a Chaos Situation in Cleveland’.

On the other side, you got articles like this: Rasmussen Poll: Ryan Would Lose to Clinton/Sanders.  Now what does this truly accomplish?  This is put out there to feed the anger about Ryan taking the nomination.  Yes, if somehow somebody figured out a way to get Ryan on the ballot, everybody would be hopping mad.  Even just suggesting it gets the same effect.  It gets Trump people mad.  It gets Cruz people mad.  So this article feeds that anger.  It confirms the accusations, the fear-mongering, and finger-pointing.  “You see what happens if the Establishment succeeds?  We got to stop them!”  This article is designed to get people talking and keep talking about something that will never happen.  Here’s another one: Rick Santorum: GOP Race Still Wide Open.  The writer states, “Santorum pointed out the possibility that delegates at the convention could choose a nominee that is not in the race.”  Didn’t Rick endorse Rubio?  Rubio hasn’t endorsed anybody and has not released his delegates.  Why?  Trump NEEDS Kasich and Rubio delegates.  A deal on the convention floor could hand those to him.

How about Rush?  He’s probably on neither side, but he eats this up and keeps repeating it.  Look what he’s still saying right now (4/9/2016):

…If any of you are wondering what the establishment is gonna do and what they’re doing in preparation for a contested convention, and if they are, whom are they thinking of putting up, who would they like to be the nominee, there’s a way to find out what they’re doing.  All you have to do is read The Politico.  That’s where the Republican Party goes to leak things.

The second thing to do is to keep a sharp eye on — I’ll give you just a list of names as an example.  Ryan, Walker, Romney, Jeb.  If you start seeing in the media news stories that are essentially puff piece profiles, if you start seeing news stories about what has Jeb been doing since he got out, and how is Jeb reacting to it, and what’s Jeb planning for his future. Or about Scott Walker, or about Ryan, if you see news stories where there is an attempt to build the case for somebody and you wonder, “What’s this about?”  They’re floating possibilities.

This is where you read between the lines and you figure out what they’re trying to pull off. And that’s how you can identify if there is somebody that they have singled out that they do want to nominate in a contested convention, just watch and see which Republican establishment types are getting a lot of it news coverage, the kind of coverage that would serve the purpose of establishing a reputation, establishing qualifications, establishing a sense of purpose.  Yes, they might not have made it throughout the primaries, but has learned a lot and has stayed involved, is closely watching events and wants to do anything possible to help the party.

If you start seeing stories like that about anybody, that will be a good indication what the power brokers are thinking.  I think we’ve seen that with Ryan.  We’ve seen a lot of stories about Ryan…

So you have this false narrative being trumpeted by both sides.  Trumpsters are accusing the Establishment on one side, and you got little hints coming from the Establishment that the accusations are true.  Ping Pong Bluff Tactic.  Good cop. Bad Cop.  It’s all false.  It will never happen.  Especially, because Cruz is very close to locking down the eight state delegate majority.  If you look at delegate count right now (as of April 7-8,9), you’ll see that Cruz has locked down a majority of delegates in seven states.  The eighth one is Colorado and he’s getting very close to the majority this very moment:  “Republican presidential candidate Sen. Ted Cruz picks up another three delegates in Colorado’s district 7 on Thursday, with another four districts voting and state level Republican party voting this weekend.”  Once he locks down the eight state majority threshold, then he doesn’t NEED a rule change to get on the ballot, like Kasich does.  His delegates can lobby and vote to keep the rules as is, go into the contested convention and win this thing. (That’s if Trump, Kasich, and Rubio delegates don’t unite to change the rule.  Why not?  We’ll get you on that ballot and in the VP spot if you push your delegates our way)

The reality is that the front runners have the real power to change the rules or keep the rules the same.  You’ve got Reince telling people over and over what the rules are:  He’s states, “It’s not like the Rules Committee is going to come together and say, now it’s no states.  They take all of the recommendations to the convention and the majority of delegates accept it.”  As I’ve stated before, all these delegates are anti-Establishment delegates.  There is no way they’re going to vote themselves off the ballot or some no-name on the ballot.  So all the chaos and fear-mongering is a smoke-screen.  It’s cover for the fact that all they really want is Kasich on the ballot; not to win mind you, but for Trump to win.   Their strategy is to take out Cruz in the convention and Trump in the general.

 

UPDATE: (1:06 PM 4/8/16)  Look at this junk:  Conservatives Eye Gen. James Mattis as Presidential Alternative   The writer states:  “This summer’s Republican National Convention will have to be contested in order for Mattis to land on the presidential ballot.”  Yet if you actually read what the Daily Beast article he’s referring to, it has absolutely nothing to do with the RNC.  They’re talking about Mattis going 3rd Party.

The Fresh Face?

April 7, 2016

This whole notion that Establishment is going to parachute some non-candidate into the convention is a bluff.  They are practicing the “Art of the Deal.”   They are proposing something that is so far out of the scope of what is possible in hopes of getting something in the middle.  This strategy is a bluff because it’s something that has NEVER happened in the history of the Republican Party, and it never will happen.  John Boehner said “If we don’t have a nominee who can win on the first ballot, I’m for none of the above. They all had a chance to win. None of them won. So I’m for none of the above. I’m for Paul Ryan to be our nominee.”  John Boehner was the Chairman of the 2008 and 2012 convention.  He knows full well that this parachute notion is impossible.  Karl Rove said, “…a fresh face might be the thing that could give us a chance to turn this election and win in November.”  Karl Rove the ultimate establishment insider, he’s been through this numerous times.  He also knows full well that this will never happen.

How do we know this won’t happen?  How do we know it’s impossible?  First, it never has happened in the history of the Republican Party.  Ever since the Civil War, this has never happened.  The nomination has always been given to a candidate that was on the 1st ballot at the convention.  Secondly, the current rules absolutely do no allow it.  The only way the Establishment can drop someone new in is to CHANGE THE RULES.  There’s four ways to amend the rules:

• The standing rules committee which has been meeting during this election can amend the rules.  It’s my understanding that they already have amended them in January.
• The RNC can amend the rules before the convention.  These are the heads sitting in the high places of the RNC.
• The new rules committee that meets one week before the convention can amend the rules.  This committee consists of two duly elected delegates from each state. 80% of the current new delegates are Trump/Cruz delegates.
• On the convention floor, amendments can be proposed if 25% agree.  I suppose they vote on the amendments.

Ultimately though, to make the rules effectual from the 2016 convention forward, the majority of these 2473 delegates must vote to ratify the entire set of rules before the convention continues.  So in the end, it makes no difference who, what, or when the rules are amended, the delegates must vote to make them effectual.  So there is no way on God’s green earth that all these delegates (a grand majority of which are bound to anti-Establishment candidates) are going to vote to bring in an Establishment non-candidate like Ryan or Romney that hasn’t run the entire campaign season.  No way.  No how.  Forget about it.

Fortunately, on Tuesday, Jamie Dupree and Newt Gingrich finally corrected Hannity about this nonsense. Newsmax wrote: ‘Gingrich said Trump and Cruz will enter the convention with 80 percent of the delegates, and have no incentive to change a current rule that requires someone to have won the most votes in at least eight states to secure the nomination. Why, he asked, would they “give it to some nice person who didn’t run, didn’t raise money, didn’t debate, didn’t win delegates but what the heck? ‘He’s really,’ or ‘she’s really, a terrific person.’ I mean, even in a novel you couldn’t get away with this.”‘  It will be interesting to see if Rush and Hannity will keep parroting this false strategy.

Why bluff?

So why would Establishment types keep pushing this narrative?  Why would they keep saying that they want to do something they know they can’t do?  They are proposing something that is so far out of the scope of what is possible in hopes of getting something in the middle that IS possible.  What is possible?  The only remote possibility they have of affecting this nomination and thus the presidency lies in Kasich.  That’s why he’s still in there.  As the rules stand now, there is no way for Kasich to get on the ballot.  He has not won a majority of delegates in eight states.  That’s just not going to happen either.  So the establishment’s only hope is to get a rule change that will allow Kasich on the ballot.  This is not so that Kasich can win, but so that Kasich and Trump can broker a deal on the convention floor and Trump can win.

So the bluffing serves two purposes:  First, it caused an unwarranted fear of a contested convention and of the establishment.  In that respect it worked.  Sean Hannity parroted this bologna 20 times a day for the past 2 months and has tried endlessly to scare people into believing that the Establishment is going to “leap frog” some non-candidate into the mix.  Rush Limbaugh bit too.  Every episode he made sure to tell us that the Establishment’s plan was to parachute in a savior.  It is their hope that this fear will cause people to coalesce around Trump so he can win outright on the 1st ballot.  Now, whether or not Sean and Rush did this intentionally or out of ignorance, I’ll let you decide.  Well, it didn’t work: just like all their other plans this season.  Secondly, and more realistically, is to distract from the inevitable rule change that will let their man in on the 1st ballot.

Now, note that there has been a push since 2012 to change the rules in this manner.  The kicker is that it hasn’t come from the Establishment.  In 2012 rule 40 was tightened up by the Establishment (a majority of the delegates voted to change this rule on the convention floor, the grand majority of them were Romney delegates, so go figure).  It was tightened up to keep Ron Paul off the ballot.  Subsequently, Ron Paul delegates were completely disenfranchised.  They couldn’t vote, their vote was not counted, and they were completely ignored when the numbers were announced.  So rightly so, they were pretty mad.  They’re still mad.  So this January, for the second time that I know of, at the standing rules committee meeting, this issue was brought up and the rules were actually amended.  But at the last second, it was motioned to reconsider, and it was shot down.

Why?  At that point in time, January, no primaries or caucuses had taken place, and the Establishment was still thinking they could run this like they always have and wanted the rules to stay the same.  But since then, Whoops! Jeb Bush is out. Christie is out. Rubio is out.  Now, the two front runners are Trump and Cruz and the last man they got is Kasich.  Oh the irony!  The same rule they put in to keep Ron Paul out is the same one that keeps their last hope out.  There’s another standing rules committee meeting at the end of April.  It will be very interesting to hear what song the Establishment is singing then.

Now, they HAVE to change the rules; but not for the sake of winning.  There’s no way Kasich can win (I’ll explain later).  The Establishment has already lost.  They know it’s either Trump or Cruz now.  So keep in mind that the Establishment’s definition of winning is not necessarily a Republican in the White House.  Some of them have flat out said that they’d vote for Hillary over Trump.  Their strategy is to take Cruz out at the convention and Trump out in the general.  So they’re bluffing about this whole parachute a non-candidate fresh face in to distract from the real fight:  Rule 40.  I just read an article about how Ron Paul’s people are running the Pro-Trump PACs   There’s already a move to change Rule 40 on the basis and interest of fairness.  It’s very likely that establishment people in standing rules committee will say, “Well there was a lot of support for this in January, and it wasn’t fair for 2012 Paul delegates, and we believe that yes we should let every candidate’s delegates be counted and announced.  The fair thing to do is open up Rule 40.”

They’re going to try to pull this off; and it is reasonable.  Any sensible person would agree.  It’s not fair that delegates that are bound to vote for candidates by the national convention, state convention, and the vote of the people be prevented from casting their vote.  They should at the very least be allowed to vote for whom they are bound to vote for.  It makes sense.  They are most likely going to change the threshold (Rule 40:  eight-state majority of delegates).  The question will be where will that threshold land?  If they roll it back to 2012 rules, the threshold would be that the candidate must win five states; they must get the plurality of the delegates in five states.  Sounds good, but if this still disenfranchises Kasich delegates, and Rubio delegates for that matter, then what’s the point?  So there will be a moral argument to lower the threshold enough to at least let the people who are still running show up on the 1st ballot.  And the Establishment knows and will take advantage of the non-Establishment’s dedication to morality!  Will the amendment pass?   That is yet to be determined.  When it gets to the convention floor and the 2473 delegates vote on these rules, will a majority vote in favor?  That’s yet to be determined.

So the bluff is a distraction and leverage to change Rule 40 to their favor.  It will show the world how willing they are to compromise and be fair to ALL the candidates.  The Trojan horse is FAIRNESS.  Sneaky?  Yes.

If the bluff works?

In other words, what if Kasich gets on the ballot?  Not good.  The Establishment’s intentions are for Trump to offer Kasich the Vice-Presidential position in return for his delegates.  There may be some deal for Rubio too.  The delegates will eventually be free to vote their conscience.  However, where they go will have a lot to do with what deals are brokered.  That’s why it’s called a brokered convention.  Most likely, the deal is already made.  Trump, the great deal maker, knows that one on one with Cruz is a losing proposition.  He needs the Establishment to win in a contested convention.  He’s getting desperate now because he’s sinking in the polls.  He’s leaking unbound delegates.  He’s leaking bound delegates. Cruz is gaining momentum and winning delegates.  The only way to win is to make a deal with the Establishment.  Trump wants to win, so he’ll make the deal.  The Establishment doesn’t want to win.  They want to stay in power.  If they can get Kasich on the ballot and swing all his delegates and anybody else to Trump, then they destroy Cruz.  That’s a win for the Establishment.  They can show everyone how well they unify and support the nominee.  Trump goes on to the general election and loses.  That’s a win for the Establishment.  Nothing would make them happier than to have a Democrat in the White House.  Then they can stay RINOs and kick political footballs around for another 4 years.

Another thing to consider is the track record of a front-runner going into a contested convention like Trump is:  There have been ten contested conventions in the history of the RNC.  Four of those ten, the nomination has gone to the front runner, the candidate with the plurality of the delegates.  Of those four, every single one of them lost the general election.

Now, some people think that the Establishment honestly would want Kasich to win.  And conservative talk and radio go along with this.  This is also a distraction.  They go on and on and on about how delusional Kasich is.  “He has no mathematical chance of winning the nomination!  He’s trying to drag this to a contested convention!  He’s a spoiler!  Why is he still in this race?”  Well here’s why:  Of the ten contested conventions that the party has gone through, in six of them the nomination was given to an underdog.  Five of those six times, the nominee has gone on to actually win the Presidency of the United States.  And surprisingly, five of those six also came into the convention with less delegates that Kasich has now (12%).  And as I said earlier, all of the four front-runners that won the nomination lost the general election.  So, historically speaking, if he could just get on the ballot, Kasich has the greatest chance of winning the Presidency of the three!  Kasich is not delusional.  He’s just historical!

As also previously stated, IF we get to a contested convention with Kasich on the ballot, he still cannot win, despite the fact that history is on his side.  This is because of what he’s up against.  He is not competing against other Establishment candidates like Jeb and Rubio, or other governors like Perry and Walker.  This is a Cruz and Trump convention now.  The vast majority of delegates are bound to vote against the Establishment.  Sorry Johnny!  You’re the outsider now!  We have come to the point of no return.  This is no normal election.

Calling the Bluff

Don’t change the rules.  Leave them as they are.  THAT is fair.  These are the rules they all agree to before this race started.  The only reason to change them is to accommodate some person that doesn’t want to follow the rules.  The rhetoric will soon come that we must be fair and democratic and thus change the rules.  Don’t fall for that mess.  What’s good for the goose is good for the gander.  They wrote the rules.  Let them follow them.