The Fresh Face?
April 7, 2016
This whole notion that Establishment is going to parachute some non-candidate into the convention is a bluff. They are practicing the “Art of the Deal.” They are proposing something that is so far out of the scope of what is possible in hopes of getting something in the middle. This strategy is a bluff because it’s something that has NEVER happened in the history of the Republican Party, and it never will happen. John Boehner said “If we don’t have a nominee who can win on the first ballot, I’m for none of the above. They all had a chance to win. None of them won. So I’m for none of the above. I’m for Paul Ryan to be our nominee.” John Boehner was the Chairman of the 2008 and 2012 convention. He knows full well that this parachute notion is impossible. Karl Rove said, “…a fresh face might be the thing that could give us a chance to turn this election and win in November.” Karl Rove the ultimate establishment insider, he’s been through this numerous times. He also knows full well that this will never happen.
How do we know this won’t happen? How do we know it’s impossible? First, it never has happened in the history of the Republican Party. Ever since the Civil War, this has never happened. The nomination has always been given to a candidate that was on the 1st ballot at the convention. Secondly, the current rules absolutely do no allow it. The only way the Establishment can drop someone new in is to CHANGE THE RULES. There’s four ways to amend the rules:
- The standing rules committee which has been meeting during this election can amend the rules. It’s my understanding that they already have amended them in January.
- The RNC can amend the rules before the convention. These are the heads sitting in the high places of the RNC.
- The new rules committee that meets one week before the convention can amend the rules. This committee consists of two duly elected delegates from each state. 80% of the current new delegates are Trump/Cruz delegates.
- On the convention floor, amendments can be proposed if 25% agree. I suppose they vote on the amendments.
Ultimately though, to make the rules effectual from the 2016 convention forward, the majority of these 2473 delegates must vote to ratify the entire set of rules before the convention continues. So in the end, it makes no difference who, what, or when the rules are amended, the delegates must vote to make them effectual. So there is no way on God’s green earth that all these delegates (a grand majority of which are bound to anti-Establishment candidates) are going to vote to bring in an Establishment non-candidate like Ryan or Romney that hasn’t run the entire campaign season. No way. No how. Forget about it.
Fortunately, on Tuesday, Jamie Dupree and Newt Gingrich finally corrected Hannity about this nonsense. Newsmax wrote: ‘Gingrich said Trump and Cruz will enter the convention with 80 percent of the delegates, and have no incentive to change a current rule that requires someone to have won the most votes in at least eight states to secure the nomination. Why, he asked, would they “give it to some nice person who didn’t run, didn’t raise money, didn’t debate, didn’t win delegates but what the heck? ‘He’s really,’ or ‘she’s really, a terrific person.’ I mean, even in a novel you couldn’t get away with this.”‘ It will be interesting to see if Rush and Hannity will keep parroting this false strategy.
Why bluff?
So why would Establishment types keep pushing this narrative? Why would they keep saying that they want to do something they know they can’t do? They are proposing something that is so far out of the scope of what is possible in hopes of getting something in the middle that IS possible. What is possible? The only remote possibility they have of affecting this nomination and thus the presidency lies in Kasich. That’s why he’s still in there. As the rules stand now, there is no way for Kasich to get on the ballot. He has not won a majority of delegates in eight states. That’s just not going to happen either. So the establishment’s only hope is to get a rule change that will allow Kasich on the ballot. This is not so that Kasich can win, but so that Kasich and Trump can broker a deal on the convention floor and Trump can win.
So the bluffing serves two purposes: First, it caused an unwarranted fear of a contested convention and of the establishment. In that respect it worked. Sean Hannity parroted this bologna 20 times a day for the past 2 months and has tried endlessly to scare people into believing that the Establishment is going to “leap frog” some non-candidate into the mix. Rush Limbaugh bit too. Every episode he made sure to tell us that the Establishment’s plan was to parachute in a savior. It is their hope that this fear will cause people to coalesce around Trump so he can win outright on the 1st ballot. Now, whether or not Sean and Rush did this intentionally or out of ignorance, I’ll let you decide. Well, it didn’t work: just like all their other plans this season. Secondly, and more realistically, is to distract from the inevitable rule change that will let their man in on the 1st ballot.
Now, note that there has been a push since 2012 to change the rules in this manner. The kicker is that it hasn’t come from the Establishment. In 2012 rule 40 was tightened up by the Establishment (a majority of the delegates voted to change this rule on the convention floor, the grand majority of them were Romney delegates, so go figure). It was tightened up to keep Ron Paul off the ballot. Subsequently, Ron Paul delegates were completely disenfranchised. They couldn’t vote, their vote was not counted, and they were completely ignored when the numbers were announced. So rightly so, they were pretty mad. They’re still mad. So this January, for the second time that I know of, at the standing rules committee meeting, this issue was brought up and the rules were actually amended. But at the last second, it was motioned to reconsider, and it was shot down.
Why? At that point in time, January, no primaries or caucuses had taken place, and the Establishment was still thinking they could run this like they always have and wanted the rules to stay the same. But since then, Whoops! Jeb Bush is out. Christie is out. Rubio is out. Now, the two front runners are Trump and Cruz and the last man they got is Kasich. Oh the irony! The same rule they put in to keep Ron Paul out is the same one that keeps their last hope out. There’s another standing rules committee meeting at the end of April. It will be very interesting to hear what song the Establishment is singing then.
Now, they HAVE to change the rules; but not for the sake of winning. There’s no way Kasich can win (I’ll explain later). The Establishment has already lost. They know it’s either Trump or Cruz now. So keep in mind that the Establishment’s definition of winning is not necessarily a Republican in the White House. Some of them have flat out said that they’d vote for Hillary over Trump. Their strategy is to take Cruz out at the convention and Trump out in the general. So they’re bluffing about this whole parachute a non-candidate fresh face in to distract from the real fight: Rule 40. I just read an article about how Ron Paul’s people are running the Pro-Trump PACs There’s already a move to change Rule 40 on the basis and interest of fairness. It’s very likely that establishment people in standing rules committee will say, “Well there was a lot of support for this in January, and it wasn’t fair for 2012 Paul delegates, and we believe that yes we should let every candidate’s delegates be counted and announced. The fair thing to do is open up Rule 40.”
They’re going to try to pull this off; and it is reasonable. Any sensible person would agree. It’s not fair that delegates that are bound to vote for candidates by the national convention, state convention, and the vote of the people be prevented from casting their vote. They should at the very least be allowed to vote for whom they are bound to vote for. It makes sense. They are most likely going to change the threshold (Rule 40: eight-state majority of delegates). The question will be where will that threshold land? If they roll it back to 2012 rules, the threshold would be that the candidate must win five states; they must get the plurality of the delegates in five states. Sounds good, but if this still disenfranchises Kasich delegates, and Rubio delegates for that matter, then what’s the point? So there will be a moral argument to lower the threshold enough to at least let the people who are still running show up on the 1st ballot. And the Establishment knows and will take advantage of the non-Establishment’s dedication to morality! Will the amendment pass? That is yet to be determined. When it gets to the convention floor and the 2473 delegates vote on these rules, will a majority vote in favor? That’s yet to be determined.
So the bluff is a distraction and leverage to change Rule 40 to their favor. It will show the world how willing they are to compromise and be fair to ALL the candidates. The Trojan horse is FAIRNESS. Sneaky? Yes.
If the bluff works?
In other words, what if Kasich gets on the ballot? Not good. The Establishment’s intentions are for Trump to offer Kasich the Vice-Presidential position in return for his delegates. There may be some deal for Rubio too. The delegates will eventually be free to vote their conscience. However, where they go will have a lot to do with what deals are brokered. That’s why it’s called a brokered convention. Most likely, the deal is already made. Trump, the great deal maker, knows that one on one with Cruz is a losing proposition. He needs the Establishment to win in a contested convention. He’s getting desperate now because he’s sinking in the polls. He’s leaking unbound delegates. He’s leaking bound delegates. Cruz is gaining momentum and winning delegates. The only way to win is to make a deal with the Establishment. Trump wants to win, so he’ll make the deal. The Establishment doesn’t want to win. They want to stay in power. If they can get Kasich on the ballot and swing all his delegates and anybody else to Trump, then they destroy Cruz. That’s a win for the Establishment. They can show everyone how well they unify and support the nominee. Trump goes on to the general election and loses. That’s a win for the Establishment. Nothing would make them happier than to have a Democrat in the White House. Then they can stay RINOs and kick political footballs around for another 4 years.
Another thing to consider is the track record of a front-runner going into a contested convention like Trump is: There have been ten contested conventions in the history of the RNC. Four of those ten, the nomination has gone to the front runner, the candidate with the plurality of the delegates. Of those four, every single one of them lost the general election.
Now, some people think that the Establishment honestly would want Kasich to win. And conservative talk and radio go along with this. This is also a distraction. They go on and on and on about how delusional Kasich is. “He has no mathematical chance of winning the nomination! He’s trying to drag this to a contested convention! He’s a spoiler! Why is he still in this race?” Well here’s why: Of the ten contested conventions that the party has gone through, in six of them the nomination was given to an underdog. Five of those six times, the nominee has gone on to actually win the Presidency of the United States. And surprisingly, five of those six also came into the convention with less delegates that Kasich has now (12%). And as I said earlier, all of the four front-runners that won the nomination lost the general election. So, historically speaking, if he could just get on the ballot, Kasich has the greatest chance of winning the Presidency of the three! Kasich is not delusional. He’s just historical!
As also previously stated, IF we get to a contested convention with Kasich on the ballot, he still cannot win, despite the fact that history is on his side. This is because of what he’s up against. He is not competing against other Establishment candidates like Jeb and Rubio, or other governors like Perry and Walker. This is a Cruz and Trump convention now. The vast majority of delegates are bound to vote against the Establishment. Sorry Johnny! You’re the outsider now! We have come to the point of no return. This is no normal election.
Calling the Bluff
Don’t change the rules. Leave them as they are. THAT is fair. These are the rules they all agree to before this race started. The only reason to change them is to accommodate some person that doesn’t want to follow the rules. The rhetoric will soon come that we must be fair and democratic and thus change the rules. Don’t fall for that mess. What’s good for the goose is good for the gander. They wrote the rules. Let them follow them.
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