Tag: convention

Populism and the Birth of the IRS

popirsSo the other night, some of us men were discussing the power of the IRS and how the government uses money as a tool to control the people, or the fear of losing money as a means of controlling the people.  We complained about it, wondered why it wasn’t the other way around, complained about it some more, but ultimately we did not hammer out a plan to save the country that night.  We came close.  But the answer always seems to evade us.  Consequently though, there was a really good question asked:  When was the IRS created?  And none of us were really sure.  So old Franko (my eldest son) did some investigation tonight.  Here’s what he found on wiki:

  1. There was little to no income tax pre-1900.  During the Civil War, in 1862, the government imposed emergency temporary income taxes to raise money for the war effort.  These expired in 1872.  The Income Tax of 1894 was ruled unconstitutional by the Supreme Court
  2. “In 1906, with the election of President Theodore Roosevelt, and later his successor William Howard Taft, the United States saw a populist movement for tax reform. This movement culminated during then candidate Woodrow Wilson’s election of 1912 and in February 1913, the ratification of the Sixteenth Amendment to the United States Constitution:”  This, of course, granted to Congress the power to impose an income tax on the people.  This populist movement did not just advocate for tax reform, but they were notorious for protectionism and trade tariffs, the likes of which Trump, Sanders, and Clinton are all three now promoting.  The protectionism and tariffs of this populist movement eventually led to the Fordney-McCumber and Smoot-Hawley tariffs, which many believe were responsible for plunging us much deeper and longer into the Great Depression.
  3. So in 1913 the IRS gave us our first 1040 form.  And incidentally, here’s the kicker (emphasis added): “The IRS’s workload jumped by TEN-FOLD, triggering a MASSIVE restructuring. The IRS DOUBLED its staff, but was still processing 1917 returns in 1919.”

Interestingly, listening to LevinTV tonight, Mark was comparing Reagan’s legacy of free-market, free-trade capitalism to Trump’s and Sander’s tariffs and protectionism.  He had this to say about where we’re heading if we don’t follow Reagan’s model:

“There’s another issue.  That’s the government.  When we have more free-market capitalism, we need less government.  Don’t we?  In fact, power moves from the central government to the individual.  Power moves from the public sector to the private sector.  It’s a good thing.  So it has consequences in terms of the civil society.  So apart from economics, which is not to be dismissed in any respect, this goes to the issue of the civil society in government.  How much government do we want?  I want you to think about this for a second.  Regardless of who’s elected, they keep talking about protectionism and tariffs.  What kind of bureaucracy would we have to create in order to control so many prices, in order to issue so many taxes?  The auditors that would have to be hired…  The investigators that would have to be hired…  THE STRENGH OF THE INTERNAL REVENUE SERVICE WOULD HAVE TO EXPAND.  The central government become more increasingly powerful…  You think I’m joking?

No Mark.  I don’t think you’re joking. I think you’re absolutely right.  While I was listening to his program, old Franko was reading all this stuff about the history of populism and the IRS.  Later on that night we shared with each other what we had learned and the information beautifully intersected on a point of enlightenment.  So what Levin is warning about has most certainly already happened in the past.  I think it’s a shame that history and common sense are not on the side of Trumpmania.

A Little Bit of Common Sense

thomaspaineI’ll admit, I’ve learned some things during this election cycle.  One thing that has come to my attention that I never really realized is this transfer of power from the legislative branch of our government to the executive branch of our government.  We know something is wrong in our country.  We see its effects.  We see our nation crumbling.  But why can’t we stop these things from happening?  I mean what is the plan to get this country back on track.  What track?  The constitution track.  People just don’t understand HOW we’ve strayed from our constitution.  Therefore, we don’t understand HOW to get us back on a constitutional track.  What is lacking must somehow be provided.  This is just one aspect of all this mess.  There must be a transfer of power BACK to the legislative branch of government.

Everybody is mad and everybody sees that something is wrong.  Something is missing.  Something is not working.  Something is broke.  People want to know how to fix it.  But they don’t know where the problem is.  That is why they vote for Trump.  They just don’t know.  They think that this one person is going to fix the problem.  But let me ask you this:  How is he going to transfer the power of the executive branch BACK to the legislative branch?  You see, it’s very common for people to see President Obama as a usurper of power when he hands down his bathroom edicts.  But I contend that the problem is not that he’s usurped power, but rather that power has been unconstitutionally conferred to him.  This is very similar to the all-powerful Supreme Court.  We complain that they legislate from the bench. But truly, the problem is not necessarily the justices, but rather the power they wield has been unconstitutionally conferred to them.  And thus the fallacy that the right person in that position will fix the problem.  A conservative justice will not fix the broken judicial system we have.  And neither will a single president be able to transfer his branch’s power BACK to the legislative branch of our government where it belongs (or to the states), especially if he hasn’t once mentioned on the campaign trail that this needs to be done.

There was a great interview with Senator Mike Lee by Mark Levin explaining this phenomena.  Mike Lee explained how the agencies and departments of the executive branch have given legislators relief of the responsibility of passing law.  They literally don’t have to legislate anymore because that power has been systematically relinquished to the executive branch.  They have given up their accountability.  They let the executive branch legislate away and wash their hands of any responsibility.  The beautiful balance of powers between the three branches that our founding fathers instituted is way out of balance.  Just the other day I was reading how the executive branch hands down 3500 to 4000 new regulations a year, whereas our legislative branch that is supposed to be making the law only pass 100-200 laws a year.  Our government is out of balance and there’s no way to check the power of the executive branch.  The only recourse we have are the courts.  The courts are packed by the executive branch with leftist judges that love big government.  So our system of checks and balances has run amok!

And that is one of our biggest problems.  The executive branch is getting bigger and bigger and bigger.  The EPA, the Department of Education, OSHA, and on and on.  They are the ones writing the law.  We the people have no representation.  We the people have no recourse.   The executive branch is effectually swallowing up the legislative branch.  I wanted to share something with you from Thomas Paine’s “Common Sense”.  He’s writing to the inhabitants of America on February 14th, in the year 1776..

“The nearer any government approaches to a republic the less business there is for a king.  It is somewhat difficult to find a proper name for the government of England.”

So the converse of this is what is happening in our government.  The king, or the President and his executive branch, is taking up more and more business:  health, housing, education, and now bathrooms!  All that is none of their business.  And the more business the executive branch gets into, the further we regress from a republic.  So it is becoming more and more difficult to find a proper name for the government of the United States of America.  Were we not given a republic?  What do we call our government now?

“…in its present state it is unworthy of the name, because the corrupt influence of the crown, by having all the places in its disposal, hath so effectually swallowed up the power, and eaten out the virtue of the house of commons (the republican part in the constitution) that the government of England is nearly as monarchical as that of France and Spain.”

Clearly, the power of our house of commons, our legislative branch, is getting swallowed up and any virtue that it once had is now eaten out.  I find it interesting that we’ve come full circle.  The very corruption that we declared our independence from is now at hand.

“For it is the republican and not the monarchical part of the constitution of England which Englishmen glory in, viz. the liberty of choosing an house of commons from out of their own body – and it is easy to see that when republican virtue fails, slavery ensues.  Why is the constitution of England sickly, but because monarchy hath poisoned the republic, the crown hath engrossed the commons?”

This is the very reason, the power of England had to be shook off.  This is how we don’t have representation.  It’s not that we don’t have representatives. No, we’ve got plenty of those.  It’s that they have no real power. It’s that there truly is no accountability.  They’re not the ones making the law.  They have given away their power to make law.  They have refused to take back that which is rightfully theirs.  Simply put, our representative refuse to do their job.  There is only one solution to this.  That which is lacking must be provided.  The power must be wrested from those who unconstitutionally have it, and it must be given back not only to those who constitutionally should have it, but to those who can be trusted to keep it.    God help us.

 

Mark Levin vs Julia Hahn

TrumpifiedReagan300So the trade wars have begun.  Mark Levin says that Reagan was for free-trade.  Julia Hahn says that Reagan was actually a protectionist.  Who’s right?  I have to say that the latest article by Julia is very well written, very sophisticated, very well sourced out with quotes and references to back her up.  And when I first read it, I got to admit I was shaken up a bit and thought, “Maybe Levin isn’t quite right about what he’s been saying about trade?”  But I went outside and did some work and chewed on all this and read the article again.  It took me a while, but I see now that this article, though it’s convincing, is still nothing more than manipulative Trump propaganda.  With a little bit of brain power, a common man like me can see this for what it really is.  So I quoted the entire article and I added my notes in an italicized red font to explain what really is going on.  I know trade talk is boring and doesn’t really make ratings on the cable networks; but it is important.  So if you can endure it, please read on.  Here’s the entire article:

 

Hillary Pledges Open Borders, Levin Responds with Attack on Trump’s Tariffs

by Julia Hahn, 14 May 2016

First of all, the title of this states that Levin is responding to Hillary’s pledge to open borders with an attack on Trump’s Tariffs.  So right off the bat, Julia starts by lying.  Levin is not responding to Hillary pledge, but he’s responding to Trump’s pledge.  Julia is implying that open borders is an issue that Levin doesn’t care about, or perhaps Levin doesn’t see the horror of Hillary’s view on immigration.  Julia seems to think that because Levin is for free-trade, that somehow that makes him an open-border advocate, which most people who listen to Levin know that is absolutely absurd.  All that is simple deflection.  Julie is doing exactly what she’s accusing Levin of doing.  Julia is bringing attention to another subject to distract from the subject at hand due to a personal motive to smear Levin.

Last week, Donald Trump met with the family members of Sarah Root, a beautiful, beaming 21-year-old girl slaughtered by an illegal alien in Nebraska the day after graduating from college with 4.0 GPA. Later that day, Trump warned, “Crooked Hillary Clinton wants completely open borders.”

So Levin doesn’t care about Sarah Root or her family because he’s trying to shed some light on Trump’s trade plan or at least bring it to the forefront of people’s minds.  Of course illegal immigration is how Trump bursted on the scene; it’s his supposed strongest subject.  So, anytime anyone questions Mr. Trump they pound the immigration drum.  Anytime Mr. Trump was slipping in the polls, they pounded the immigration drum.  I remember on Breitbart, before every primary, they’d splash several illegal immigration stories across their website.  So this is par for the course.  Also, please note that Julia is politicizing the Sarah Root tragedy in order to smear Levin.  Deflection and politicization are tools of liberals.

Indeed, a review of Clinton’s campaign website reveals that her immigration plan is even more radical than that of Barack Obama, who completely suspended enforcement of America’s immigration law and printed hundreds of thousands of work permits for illegal aliens.

However, a much more pressing topic seems to have triggered the passions of radio host Mark Levin who, along with Jamie Weinstein, is one of the most vocal members of the #NeverTrump movement. In the course of two days, Levin penned two lengthy denunciations of Trump’s trade platform and Breitbart News’s coverage of it.

In a story featured on this website, Levin emotionally warns conservative Americans that Trump’s effort to boost American manufacturing represents a kind of existential threat to conservatism. It IS an existential threat to conservatism.  Tariffs is a government-handed solution to unfair trade.  Conservatives believe that government is not the solution, but rather government is the problem.  Levin is seemingly unconcerned with the prospect that his energetic Trump-bashing could help place Hillary Clinton in a position to add millions more Third World migrants to America, who almost certainly will not support Levin’s vision of smaller government conservatism nor tune in to his radio show where he espouses the same.  Just because someone disagrees with Trump does not mean that they are responsible for Hillary taking the White House.  Trumpsters are going to repeat this over and over and over.  I whole-heartedly disagree.  Those who vaulted him to the nomination bear the responsibility if he wins or loses.  Trumpsters were warned.  The RNC was warned.  All that should have been considered before the votes were cast.  Elections have consequences.  As Ted Cruz said, “You broke it, you bought it.”

“…Levin’s vision of smaller government conservatism…”  Huh?  This possibly exposes more about Julia than anything else.  I didn’t know there was another type of conservatism that wasn’t smaller government conservatism; as if you can have big government conservatism.  Do you see how they are attempting to redefine conservatism.  Do you remember that Trumpster women, Kayleigh McEnany, that Dana Loesch was bashing?  What did Kayleigh say that got Dana got so mad about?  She said that anybody that doesn’t support Trump is not truly a conservative.  They are actively trying to redefine conservatism.  Ironically, this is the very reason Savage advocated for a nationalist candidate.  Savage said that conservatism doesn’t mean anything anymore.  Well, now we got a nationalist candidate and his crowd is actively redefining conservatism, and demonizing true conservatives. Is that what you wanted, Savage?

One of the enduring mysteries of the #NeverTrump movement now that their preferred vessels— John Kasich and Ted Cruz— have exited the race is why they seem to believe that Trump’s “America First” platform represents a greater threat to conservatism than Clinton’s agenda of massive government, massive taxation, and massive Third World migration.  This is straw-man crud.  Nobody believes that Trump’s platform is a greater threat to conservatism than Clinton’s platform.  There may be a few (very few) people out there that believe that.  In fact, the only people that have even suggested this that I can recall are establishment elite’s like Boehner.  Conservatives don’t believe that and have never suggested that.  A threat to conservatism is a threat to conservatism; no matter what party it comes from.  This is just another ploy to somehow paint conservatives that don’t like Trump into some straw-man that supports Hillary and is really in league with the establishment.  There’s no such thing.

Trump is a “radical protectionist” whose trade policy would result in “economic misery” for nearly “everyone,” Levin warns conservatives:

The billionaire is a radical protectionist who has repeatedly declared his intention to impose massive tariffs aimed at the economies of other countries, such as Japan and Mexico, and a forty-five percent tariff on products from China. Such broad tariffs would most certainly result in retaliation by the targeted countries. This is a sure job-killer that would also drive up costs of everyday products to low- and middle-class Americans. The net result: economic misery, not just for those hard-working, tax-paying Americans who work in industries that rely on international commerce and trade, but mostly everyone.”

Levin lays out his economic theory, which leads him to his conclusion: namely, Trump’s expressed willingness to protect American industries against specific countries would result in higher prices for U.S. consumers and thus ensure economic hardship. Levin writes:

Remember, a tariff is really just a tax, the cost of which is imposed on the American people.  The higher the tariff, the higher the tax.  Imagine what a 45 percent increase in the price of goods made, say, in Japan would do to a middle class family shopping for a Toyota or Honda.   While Trump and his surrogates may have the money to pay the higher prices his policies would cause, many Americans – who are already having difficulty making ends meet – do not.

Levin makes no mention of the fact that if you raised the price of a Toyota by 45 percent, presumably Americans would not pay 45 percent more for a Toyota, but would instead buy a Ford, and that as Ford’s sales went up, the marginal cost of production would go down.

This sentence really is the only argument that Julia offers in defense of Trump’s trade theory, or as an answer to Mark Levin’s trade theory.  That’s it.  This is the only example or argument or attempt to disclaim Levin’s views on trade.  The rest of the article Julia concentrates on Ronald Reagan and attempts to cast Reagan as a protectionist.  But as far as inflation goes, higher prices, and such, this is it.  This simplistic example is really all she has.  I mean is this it?  This is all you got?

So first off, Toyota is already producing vehicles in the United States.  This is not even a good example.  But even if it was, what about all the local Toyota dealerships that would go out of business?  And it’s not just Toyota.  It’s Honda.  It’s Kia.  It’s Izuzu.  It’s Nissan.  All those dealerships and service companies would go belly up.  These are dealerships, family owned and operated by Americans that are the ones that will get hurt.  This will truly be another case of government elites picking winners and losers.

Secondly, what about the fact that a grand amount of the parts in the American made Ford are actually made in Japan or China.  Julia thinks everything under that hood is made in America.  Think again.  She thinks Ford won’t be affected by this?  Chevy?

Thirdly, Julia assumes that a marginal cost of production going down would actually be passed on to the consumer, or the employee.  Yeah right!  You just keep believing that.  I remember reading years ago that what happened more times than not is that…  Well, let me use a simple example.  Trump imposes tariff on Toyota.  Toyota’s price goes up.  Ford, instead of keeping their price the same, they raise their price to match the Toyota price.  Why?  Because they can.  So price goes up on Toyota 45%, but price goes up on Ford 44% and nothing changes but the price.  There’s examples of this in history; the steel industry for one.   

Fourth, she doesn’t address the topic of retaliation that Levin brings up:  Trade Wars.  They are very real, and Mark Levin does use history to back up what he’s saying.  He refers to the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act of the Depression.  Smoot and Hawley promised to relieve or protect the farming industry by applying these across the board tariffs on imported agriculture.  Most historian seem to believe that these tariffs made the Depression worst.  There’s a few out there that believe that it wasn’t necessarily the Smoot-Hawley tariffs.  One thing can be agreed though:  The Smoot-Hawley tariffs DID NOT DELIVER WHAT WAS PROMISED.  Anyway, many countries imposed tariffs on us because of this maneuver and the whole world paid the price. 

Fifth, Levin has made it real clear that tariffs are hitting this problem from the wrong side.  This is a heavy-handed government solution to unfair trade.  Mexico is not killing American jobs.  Canada is not killing American jobs.  No.  America is killing American jobs.  With all the regulations, taxes, and liabilities associated with doing business, it’s near impossible to compete with other countries.  You don’t fix that by taxing the competition.  You free up the American businesses.  You deregulate them.  You quit taxing them.  You get out of the way and let Americans produce.  We’re over taxed.  And now you’re going to tax the competition and we’re supposed to pay for that too.  Henry Ford begged Hoover not to sign the law, and called the Smoot-Hawley tariffs “an economic stupidity!”.  Yeah, so Julia doesn’t address that.

Sixth, this is it.  This is really the only argument Julia poses for Trump tariffs.  She actually thinks it’s that simple.  The rest of the article, she systematically tries to discredit Mark Levin on the basis that Reagan was not a “free-trade purist”, therefore Levin doesn’t know what he’s talking about even though Levin never asserted such a thing.  Read for yourself.

Moreover, Levin’s example (denouncing a 45% tariff on Japanese vehicles, which he imagines could be implemented by a President Trump) is completely analogous to an action Ronald Reagan took during his Presidency. As President, Reagan implemented a 45% tariff on Japanese motorcycles in order to save the Harley-Davidson Motor Company. To use Levin’s words: “Imagine what a 45 percent increase in the price of goods made, say, in Japan would do to a middle class family shopping for a…” motorcycle. 

A motorcycle is not… nevermind.  I’ll let her finish her argument.

A 1984 report notes that the “average dealer net price of a Harley-Davidson motorcycle” was approximately $4,780—or “$890 more than the average dealer net price ($3,890) of Japanese-brand motorcycles in the 1000cc and over class, and $2,134 more than the average price ($2,546) of all Japanese- brand motorcycles in the 700 to 899cc class.”

Regardless, Levin attempts to defend Reagan’s actions and distinguish Reagan’s trade views from Trump’s, writing:

Reagan did not make wholesale protectionism and tariffs a central plank of his platform, as Trump does; nor did he support imposing high tariffs on every single product produced in a particular country.  Actually, Reagan emphasized the opposite.  Reagan’s tariffs were targeted, including on Japanese motorcycles and semiconductors, and usually in response to specific violations of trade deals.  Besides, Trump is a populist/nationalist/protectionist.  Reagan was a conservative.  There’s a difference.”

This has got to be the most disingenuous stupid arguments I’ve ever seen.   Julia will attempt to take down Levin assertion that Reagan was not a protectionist.  She’s trying to compare Reagan’s tariff on a particular industry to Trump’s across the board China or Japan tariffs.  No they are NOT COMPLETELY ANALOGOUS.  Comparing motorcycles to a whole nation of goods is stupid.  Please. I can’t believe I actually gave some credence to this article when I first read it.  I mean there’s really no point in going further because the rest is based on this fictitious COMPLETE ANALOGY.  But let’s go into it anyway.

However, Levin’s argument is self-contradictory in two ways.

First, Reagan’s actions are completely irreconcilable with the economic principles that Levin has established: specifically, Levin’s belief that an action which raises the price of imports is “a sure job-killer that would also drive up costs of everyday products to low and middle-class Americans. The net result: economic misery.”

 The economic theory Levin has laid out would prohibit action to raise the price of a foreign good to protect a domestic industry— exactly what Reagan did.

Yet trade rules, by definition, are protectionist. NO DUH GENIUS!  Any prohibition on an unfair subsidy is, at bottom, a prohibition on importing a good so cheaply that an American company has no chance of competing against it. However, by Levin’s zero-sum argument that cheaper is necessarily better, none of these trade rules should exist or be enforced at all because to levy a tariff is to raise prices, and— by Levin’s argument— damage the economy.

Moreover, Reagan grounded his decisions in what Levin might define as “protectionist” rhetoric.

“The health and vitality of the U.S. semiconductor industry are essential to America’s future competitiveness,” Reagan said in 1987 as he was implementing a 100% tariff on Japanese semiconductors. “We cannot allow it to be jeopardized by unfair trading practices.”

“I have determined that import relief in this case is consistent with our national economic interest. The domestic industry is threatened by serious injury because of increased imports,” Reagan said in 1983 as he was implementing his tariff on Japanese motorcycles. “I have maintained that I would enforce our trade laws where necessary and where such actions are consistent with our international obligations.”

Reagan explained that protecting American industry is in the economic interests of the United States, even if it precludes the option of buying cheaper foreign goods. Reagan believed it was worth imposing a tariff for the purpose of ensuring that the American industry is able to survive. In other words, instead of letting the global market decide, Reagan applied a mercantilist approach saying the American producers should survive for the simple reason that they’re American— not because it’s cheaper, and not because it’s necessarily better, though it may be, but because America is better off for having it made within our own borders.

 This sentiment is simply incompatible with Levin’s Cato-esque argument that the cheapest product should win the day.
All this junk that is written above is based on her COMPLETE ANALOGY.  Levin was comparing a SPECIFIC commodity or industry and the protection of a SPECIFIC American enterprise like Harley Davidson to ACROSS THE BOARD tariffs on countries like China and Japan, like Trump is proposing..  The reasoning or ideology behind both are the same: protectionism and nationalism.  Levin NEVER said that it wasn’t.  He was simply saying that Reagan targeted specific industries or products and always explained to the American people why he was doing it.  Levin explains well that tariffs was an exception with Reagan, not a rule like it is with Trump.  And Juila really doesn’t address that. She just assumes that you agree with her complete analogy and hopes that you don’t figure out that it’s not complete.  In fact, I think it’s one heck of a stretch.  Secondly, notice another straw-man she starts pounding:  cheapest product should win the day straw-man.  Mark Levin never said that the price was the end-all bottom line.  Conservatives don’t believe that.  I would venture to say that most conservatives of my flavor and Levin’s flavor would gladly pay a little more for an American made product when given the chance.  I don’t know where she’s getting this stuff from.

The second reason Levin’s logic is self-contradictory is that Levin’s attempted exit-hatch— that Reagan was simply enforcing rules in response to specific violations of trade deals— would more than justify Trump’s proposed actions.

Trump has clearly said that if China devalues its currency, he will impose a tariff on China equivalent to the amount by which they are devaluing their currency— essentially negating the value of the illicit practice so that they stop doing it.

As Trump told the New York Times:

I would do a tax. And let me tell you what the tax should be? The tax should be 45 percent. That would be a tax that would be an equivalent to some of the kind of devaluations that they’ve done. They cannot believe that we haven’t done this yet. [Emphasis added]

Interestingly, Levin criticizes Breitbart for not including this quote in a Breitbart News report last week. However, when Levin provides the quote to his reader, for some reason, he leaves out the one sentence (underlined above) necessary for the reader to understand that Trump’s tariff is in direct response to illicit currency manipulation.

RedState—a blog that is certainly no friend to Trump—points out that members of corporate media are promoting a false characterization of Trump’s statement. RedState writes:

It seems pretty clear… that Trump is not calling for a 45% tariff specifically, he’s saying that this is basically what he figures that it would take to even out the playing field in terms of China’s devaluation of their currency… In other words, while Trump did utter the 45% figure, he seemed to be clearly using it as an example of how he would respond to a given value of Chinese currency devaluation. He did not claim it as an ironclad rule that should be used against China per se.

Okay so…  Same thing.  I don’t care what the tariff is in response to, the point is that he’s proposing ACROSS THE BOARD tariffs as opposed to Reagan’s SPECIFIC tariffs.  So in that respect, Levin is yet to contradict himself.  Julia thinks that China’s devaluation of currency is analogous to a motorcycle.  I’m just not seeing it.  Another point that Levin makes is that ALL countries manipulate their currency, including ours.  Now, I’ll admit: I don’t know too much about currency manipulation.  But I know enough to know that MOST people don’t know much about currency manipulation.  So to me, for Trump to use that as his argument and justification for across the board tariffs on China, is probably an exploitation of the masses’ ignorance, especially because he, and Julia, don’t address the points that Levin is bringing up.  Speaking about currency manipulation, what about the currency manipulation that our government has been doing; all this quantitative easing?  I don’t know much about it, put typically conservatives frown upon it yet Trump is silent on it.  

Look, there are major major major problems with the heavy-handed, iron-fisted, regulatory, bureaucracy that is killing American industry.  To think that tariffs on imports is going to somehow save us, is to completely ignore the real problems in this country:  YUGE GOVERNMENT!  So the conservative looks at it from this end, looking for a way to get the government out this.  While the liberal looks at it from the other end, looking for a way to get the government into this, which is tariffs.  Also, has anybody asked Trump what he’s going to do with all this revenue that essentially comes out of the consumer’s pocket?

Reagan took a similar position in 1985 when his administration pushed the Plaza Accord, which made products from Japan more expensive by raising the value of Japan’s currency.

However, Reagan was dealing with a world in which America had a much different economic threat matrix than it does today. While economic nationalists may find fault with Reagan for not acting strongly enough to protect enough threatened industries, the scope and reach of the threats that he faced were small in comparison to today. Reagan operated before NAFTA and before China’s entrance into the WTO. Plus, for all the tensions that existed between Japan and the U.S. during Reagan’s day, Japan was never a geostrategic threat to the United States’ position in the world in the same way that China is today.

In the specific case of China, Levin complains that Trump suggested imposing a tariff across the board rather than on selected goods: “Forty-five percent [tariff] on what?  Not a single product or some products. But on all products coming from China and other unspecified tariffs aimed at Japan and Mexico,” Levin writes.

Although one hardly gets the impression that Levin would drop his criticism of Trump’s proposal if Trump provided a list of the specific foreign goods he wished to subject to import duties, what Levin apparently fails to appreciate is that China’s currency manipulation would affect the price of all of their exports—not just some exports.

In other words, the only way to halt currency manipulation would be to impose a countervailing duty on all Chinese goods, which necessarily benefit from the devaluation. Trump was specific in saying that the size of his tariff would be proportional to China’s devaluation.

Though the media, as RedState points out, and Trump’s critics—including Weinstein—are perhaps willfully ignorant of this fact, Trump was explicit in saying that the 45% tariff would be a counterbalance to a 45% currency devaluation, in effect removing any incentive for China to cheat in the first place.

Trump’s tariff on currency cheating is, therefore, no more guilty of raising the price of a particular product than is NYPD raising the price of a Fossil watch when they prohibit the sale of an illegal knockoff in Times Square.

Levin’s logic is thus twisted into a pretzel. He offers a muted defense of Reagan by saying that Reagan was simply applying the rules, while at the same time, advancing an economic argument that would prohibit anyone from enforcing any trade rule at any time since such action would deny Americans access to a cheaper subsidized foreign good.

Rather than address the internal inconsistencies of his own logic, Levin’s piece primarily responds by inundating the reader with various Ronald Reagan pro-free trade quotes.

However, the thesis of a 1988 Cato analysis highlighted in Breitbart’s original report—which Levin offhandedly dismisses without explanation—seems to rebut nearly all of Levin’s op-ed. The analysis entitled “The Reagan Record on Trade: Rhetoric Vs. Reality” argues that “words are not deeds,” and an examination of Reagan’s “record leads to the question: With free traders like this, who needs protectionists?”

Yeah so there it is.  Yes, imposing tariffs is protectionist in nature, but that doesn’t make Reagan a protectionist.   Reagan was at the core a free-market capitalist, and yes he did impose SOME tariffs. But it’s disingenuous to call him a protectionist because he imposed a few tariffs, none of which were across the board.  This may be simplistic, but I do some welding from time to time.  Does that make me a welder?  I hate birthday parties and Christmas shopping.  Does that make me a Jehovah’s Witness?  That’s the kind of stupid reasoning that these people are making.  And the only reason they’re doing this is to Trumpify Reagan for their own gain.

“Although he has made some free-trade statements, he has nearly always contradicted them with other statements and then acted like a protectionist,” Some? Reagan spent years running around this country giving speeches defending conservatism, free-trade, free-market enterprise, and capitalism when he worked for GE.  Imposing two or three specific tariffs is nowhere near being an across the board tariff Trumpeteer.  Trump is RUNNING on tariffs.  That’s the comparison that Levin is making.   wrote Cato’s Sheldon Richman, as he proceeded to level the same criticism against President Reagan for raisings the cost of goods for U.S. consumers that Levin now levels against Trump: “The Reagan policy has harmed the United States in several ways… Consumers pay more for products when quotas make imports artificially scarce and when tariffs make them artificially expensive,” Richman said.

The “free traders’” frustrations over the disparity between Reagan’s rhetoric as a trade purist and his actual trade record was echoed by others at Cato during that time.

There’s that word purist again.  That is straw-man poop.  Reagan never called himself a trade purist.  It’s his opponents that called him a purist.  People always do that to disparage someone.  It’s got a double effect.  They derogatorily call you a purist because you have some principles, then call you a hypocrite when you don’t live up to their standards as a purist.  They hit you coming and they hit you going.  That’s exactly what they do today.  “Oh!  Ted Cruz is a purist!  We can’t put him in office!”  And the next day they say, “Ted Cruz is a hypocrite because of blah blah blah!”  Listen to Michael Savage and Hannity, and they use this purist bologna all the time.  They claim that #NeverTrumpers are purists.  No they have principles.  There’s no such thing as purist.  The closest to purist are probably Libertarians.  And Cato Institute, who Julia seems to love so much, is thought to be a libertarian institute. 

Julia says that “Levin’s logic is thus twisted into a pretzel.”  My goodness!  Julia is the one with the twisted pretzel logic.  She on one hand gives undo credence to the Cato libertarians in saying Reagan was a protectionist, but then completely ignores them in their viewpoint of protectionism in supporting the Trump tariffs.  She only believes half of what they’re saying; and of course it’s the half that helps her discredit Levin. 

“Despite President Ronald Reagan’s free-trade speeches, the portion of U.S. trade subject to U.S. nontariff barriers is estimated to have increased more than 50 percent since 1980,” wrote Cato’s Jim Powell in 1990.

Note:  “nontariff barriers”  You see how Julia does this?  Most people read this real fast and get the impression that Reagan upped import tariffs 50%.  But that’s not what it says.  It says nontariff.  Nontariff.

“Reagan’s instinctive or at least rhetorical commitment to economic freedom was once again overridden, apparently for political reasons,” wrote Cato’s Daniel Klein in 1984, referring to the motorcycle tariff. “President Reagan chose to sacrifice free trade and economic prosperity to short-term political goals. Consumers may well view the higher price of motorcycles as just another form of public financing of presidential campaigns.”

Once again, it’s clear we’re talking MOTORCYCLES, not Smoot-Hawley type tariffs.  As to the criticism at the time of Reagan, I think his free-market, limited government record speaks for itself.  Prices may have gone up, but so did wages, so did wealth, so did freedom, so did individualism, so did nationalism.  I think some of our prominent radio host got it backwards.  They think that this rise of nationalism will bring conservatism.  Reagan’s conservatism brought nationalism.  My question is what brings today’s nationalism?  What is fueling today’s rise of nationalism?  it’s not conservatism.  It’s Trumpism.  Trumpism is simply populism.  If Trumpsters are bashing Levin, and Cruz, and Sasse, and good conservatives that have fought the good fight, there’s something wrong. 

Reagan’s “administration has imposed more new restraints on trade than any administration since [President] Hoover,” said William Niskanen, a former Reagan aide who later went on to work at Cato.

Richman echoed this sentiment: “Ronald Reagan by his actions has become the most protectionist president since Herbert Hoover.”

Interestingly, this again is the same criticism Levin says about Trump. While Reagan’s “free trade” contemporaries accused him of subscribing to Hooverism, Levin writes that Trump’s trade position “is not Reaganism but Herbert Hooverism.”

Levin dismisses the 1988 report by writing simply: “Hahn cites a CATO Institute piece condemning the Reagan trade record. Well, here’s a link to a CATO Institute piece praising it. So what?”

I think Levin has got right perspective on Cato Institute.  So what?  Levin is the one saying that Cato’s claims are irrelevant.  Julia is the one that seems to be placing all the weight on what they have to say.  Niskanen seems to be the purist.  It you wiki him and read a little bit about him.  He seems to be a contentious, libertarian, free-trade purist like the kind that Julia imagines exist.  I suppose they do exist after all.  Well of course they’re going to criticize Reagan.  If you read his short bio on Niskanen, you’ll see he criticizes everybody. 

There’s a distinction that is not made in all these Cato comments.  And I’m not a professional on this, but Niskanen supposedly had a real problem with Reagan’s “restraints on trade”.  (That apostrophe is on the inside of the period on purpose)  Well, Reagan also used quotas and other things as a restraint on trade.  Quotas and tariffs are not the same.  So a simple explanation would be that instead of slapping a 45% tax on Toyota imports, there would be a limit as to how many would come in.  I would think that this would be somewhat a safer approach being that it gently affects economics natural equilibrium of supply and demand.   Price may come up somewhat, but it will be dictated by demand, not the heavy hand of government.  It may not come up at all.  Something to learn more about I guess.

But my point is that just because one dude is complaining about Reagan’s “restraints on trade”, that doesn’t make Reagan a tariff happy protectionist.  Tariffs are just one thing that Reagan used to affect trade, and he used it little compared to the other things he used.  Julia even provides a list of eight different things he did, but strangely only one of the list is a tariff.  Like I said, Niskanen was libertarian and so is Cato Institute.  No president will satisfy these type of libertarian ideologues on free-trade. 

Yet the Cato piece Levin highlights—which was written in 2004 after Reagan had passed away—reads like an effort to rehabilitate Reagan’s trade record in the eyes of Libertarians in service of appropriating his name and popularity to promote their agenda—much the same way liberals use Reagan’s amnesty to suggest that Reagan would have supported Barack Obama’s amnesty. Indeed, the article, entitled “Reagan Embraced Free Trade and Immigration,” tries to argue that Reagan would have held an entirely different view on immigration than Levin does. The article even seems to take swipes at professional Reagan conservatives like Levin, writing:

Reagan’s vision of an America open to commerce and peaceful, hardworking immigrants contradicts the anti-trade and anti-immigration views espoused by [those]… who claim to speak for the conservative causes Reagan largely defined… Like President George W. Bush today, Reagan had the good sense and compassion to see illegal immigrants not as criminals but as human beings striving to build better lives through honest work… Compare Reagan’s hopeful, expansive, and inclusive view of America with the dour, crabbed, and exclusive view that characterizes certain conservatives who would claim his mantle. Their view of the world could not be more alien to the spirit of Ronald Reagan.

I don’t know what this lady is saying.  Levin is not anti-trade.  He’s free-trade.  Trump and tariffs are anti-trade.  Levin is not anti-immigration.  He’s, like most Americans, anti-illegal immigration and anti-mass immigration.  So I really don’t know what Julia is getting at.

Groups like Cato, who at once praise Reagan’s free market philosophy whilst cheering mass migration, operate under the assumption that Reagan’s success had nothing to do with the success of the people he governed. In other words, that Reagan’s administration would have been equally successful had he been chosen president of Bangladesh.

The Cato article delineates another inconsistency in Levin’s position on trade. Specifically, Levin’s espoused economic theory dictating his trade policy seems at odds with his stated position on labor policy. Levin has previously claimed to oppose open borders, in part, because a large excess of low-skilled labor that is willing to work at a reduced salary unfairly undercuts the jobs and wages of American workers. Similarly, a large, uninhibited flow of low-priced imports manufactured by countries whose governments unfairly subsidize those goods, will undercut American manufacturing—and, subsequently, the jobs and wages of Americans who fill those jobs.

The only difference is that imports, unlike people, do not bring with them other elements such as healthcare needs, crime, different values and voting habits, welfare, education costs, and so forth. But the same economic principle applies.

Okay, on the onset Julia sounds smart and I’m sure she is.  But take a second and think about this.  Remember, the intention of this article is not to learn more about free-trade.  The intention is to smear Mark Levin.  Notice she is using the same tactics as left wing liberals to this.  She is equating illegal immigration with legal immigration in order to smear their opponents.  She’s also mixing in that purist/hypocrite poop.  This is Julia’s logic:  Since Levin is a ridiculous free-trade PURIST, then in order for him to be consistent, he must support open-borders, illegal immigration, and murderers.  Levin has never been for open-borders.  So somehow in Julia’s head, or what she’s trying to put in your head is that Levin’s position on tariffs signifies that he’s actually FOR Hillary and therefore un-American.  I’m sorry, but that is just plain… I don’t know how to explain that.

This is Rule #5 in Alinsky’s Rules for Radicals, “Ridicule is man’s most potent weapon.” This an attempt to ridicule Levin, to make his positions seem ridiculous.

This is Rule #13 “Pick the target, freeze it, personalize it, and polarize it. Cut off the support network and isolate the target from sympathy. Go after people and not institutions; people hurt faster than institutions.”  Julia spends one sentence defending and explaining tariffs and spends the rest of the article trying to disparage Levin’s credibility and trying to link him to an illegal-alien murderer or worst, Hillary!

Levin’s previously professed desire to curb visa dispensations seems directly at odds with his espoused economic theory that cheaper is better.

I can’t find where Levin’s political positions are “cheaper is better”.  I never heard him say that on radio nor have I read it or seen it on his TV show.

Lastly, in his op-ed, Levin takes a random swipe at famed Reagan advisor Pat Buchanan. The timing of Levin’s jab seems peculiar given that history—and this election in particular—has proven Buchanan prescient on three of the most fundamental issues concerning American voters: migration, trade, and foreign policy.  In the case of the former, this is an issue conservatives could lose forever if Hillary Clinton is put in a position of power from which she can permanently dissolve America’s borders.

All this talk about trade by Julia is truly an effort to Trumpify Reagan.  They are desperately trying to redefine Reagan in order for Trump to carry his mantle.  I think it’s funny that the only way they can Reaganify Trump is to bring Reagan down and criticize him and redefine him.  Reagan, conservative’s champion of free-market capitalism is now a tariff happy protectionist cowboy, just like Trump.  Please.

More Developments

More Smoke

April 11, 2016

There’s more propagation of The Great Bluff in the news, some of it coming from very credible people.  Let me explain how this works.  The people that want this information to gain credence will hint at it and maybe suggest it.  These people would be Trumpsters and Establishment type.  That’s all they have to do.  They are in league and want this information to come out even though it’s not true.  And truly this is probably just PART of an overall plan of chaos and accusations that they’re running.  The rest is taken care of the ones that fear that most, real grassroots conservatives.

For example, here’s Michelle Malkin from Conservative Review: Watch: Slickster Paul Ryan Wants to Choose GOP Nominee:

Now it looks like he wants to sashay and brown nose his way into the GOP presidential nomination without having to lift a finger to earn it.  GOP party bosses like loser John Boehner and Utah Big Government Republican Sen. Orrin Hack, I mean, Hatch, are talking up Ryan as the only one who can unite the party at a brokered convention.

No it doesn’t look like he wants to do that.  It’s understandable that the Establishment should absolutely not be trusted.  The Establishment is not just the GOP.  It’s not just what the Establishment Republicans want.  It’s what the whole Democratic AND Republican Establishment wants.  No, we don’t want Paul Ryan in there, but what needs to be discovered is what deals Trump, the deal-maker, has already made; particularly with the Establishment.

American Thinker has an all-out Paul Ryan Plan article:  An improbable white knight for the GOP:

All Republicans under the “big tent” need to begin to wrap their minds around the idea that the eventual nominee may be someone (and I would argue should be) who has not before been a candidate.

No we don’t NEED to wrap our mind around this load of putrescence.  Notice the “and I would argue should be” part he sticks in there.  So obviously, this article is about the writer’s fantasies and not reality.  Once again, like all the people who push this, there’s is no explanation as to HOW this going to be done.  How is this going to be done when you have to get a majority of the 2472 delegates to agree to this, when 80% of them are raging mad anti-Establishment delegates?  Good luck.  Kasich getting on that ballot is the goal.  Don’t forget that.

Now even Mark Levin is repeating this stuff.  Mark Levin is the best.  But here it is:  The Establishments Man is Paul Ryan.  However, Mark is absolutely right in his characterization of the Establishment.  They can’t be trusted.  They’ll do anything to keep power, even throw the election.  Take Cruz out at the convention, and take Trump out in the general.

Breitbart, the Trump propaganda machine, passes on an article by the New York times and entitles it:  New York Times: Paul Ryan Wages Parallel Campaign.   This is proof that Breitbart is twisting information out there and intentionally perpetuating this RUMOR that Paul Ryan is running for President.  Breitbart’s is missing half of the REAL title:  “a Mirage Candidate.”  The full title reads from the New York Times:  Ryan, a Mirage Candidate, Wages a Parallel Campaign.  Breitbart title insinuates that the article is about how Paul Ryan is running for President.  But if you actually read the article, you’ll find the article is about how Paul Ryan is NOT running for President:

Mr. Ryan is indeed at the center of a national campaign — one he calls “Confident America” — but it is NOT NECESSARILY for president… Mr. Ryan is creating a personality and policy alternative to run alongside the presidential effort — one that provides a foundation to rebuild if Republicans splinter and lose in the fall.

Details.  Details.  Details.  Think about this:  If you wanted to inform people that Paul Ryan is indeed NOT running for President, why do you put a stupid title like that on your article?  It doesn’t take a genius to see how that title is going to be misconstrued.  This is how you report factual information, yet direct public opinion the opposite direction.  It’s intentional.

More Truth

Steave Deace, from Conservative Review, has an excellent article:  5 Election Questions You’ve Been Asking (And the Answers).  Now remember Steve Deace is the guy who called the Iowa primary almost to a T; and that’s when there were 17 candidates in the race.  He’s very insightful and trustworthy.

3) Won’t the RNC just change the rules at the convention to put an establishment guy in?

Any rules changes at the convention must be approved by a MAJORITY vote in Cleveland. It’s looking pretty obvious a majority of the delegates there will be Cruz’s, and they’re obviously not going to vote for rules changes that hurt their candidate. Most of this is paranoia driven by two groups: establishment hacks trying to be relevant again, and Trump hacks who are trying to stall Cruz’s delegate momentum by spreading this around. Ignore it. We’re winning. We just need to finish the game

Need more be said?  Steave calls it paranoia.  “Paranoia driven by two groups: establishment… and Trump hacks…”  Is that not we’ve been saying all along.  Here’s another article backing us up by  Andrew C. McCarthy, PJMedia;  Trump, Mr. ‘Win, Win, Win!’, Doesn’t Know How to Play – Even When the Game Goes His Way

The rules for 2016 state contests have not been changed in midstream; they have been known from the start. How each campaign applies them tells us a great deal that we need to know about the candidates. That is why it is a fantasy to believe the GOP establishment can get away with rigging the convention process to insert a white knight candidate who has not been campaigning. The only way to run for president is to run for president.

Even More Tuth

So if Paul Ryan is not really who the Establishment wants in there, then what are they up to.  Trump’s ONLY hope at this point in the game is to make a deal with the Establishment. Why not?  Hasn’t he bragged about how he’s been doing that all his life?  The deal is already made.  The rules will be changed one way or another in the coming months.  Trump will lobby for Kasich and Rubio delegates in order to secure the nomination.  If the rules change and Kasich and Rubio are on the ballot, it’s possible they may sway their delegates to Trump in exchange for…  something.  What?  Power.  Position.  Influence.  Who knows?   Vice-President?  The Establishment’s gain will be Trump’s loss in the general election. Here’s something on the Trump/Kasich deal from RedState:  Time for John Kasich to Get his Very Own Scarlet “T”

But more to the point, John Kasich has now actively helped Donald Trump secure delegates. This is more even than Corey Lewandowksi, Trump’s own campaign manager has done. John Kasich is now an active ally of Donald Trump. And for that, he gets to wear a scarlet “T” for the rest of his life.

The deal will have already been made, and the Kasich and Rubio would have to throw their weight before the convention begins to get themselves on the ballot.  They’d have to join forces with Trump to get the rules changed.   Cruz’s position will probably be that the rules are set and shouldn’t be changed at this point.  In this article by Breitbart, Dave Bossie: Trump ‘Wanted to Run a Different Kind of Campaign’ and ‘That’s Going to Come Back to Haunt Him’, Dave Bossie says the following:

“The only way for the rules to change is for the full convention to vote on them,” Bossie argued.  “The delegates — the Cruz delegates, the Trump delegates — have to vote to approve that.  And even if, like I was saying earlier, some of those delegates are truly not Trump or Cruz delegates, there has to be a majority willing to change the rules in order to do it.  And if that does not happen, then either Trump or Cruz will be the nominee.  That’s the ball we all have to keep our eye on.”

In order for the Establishment to pull this off, SOME of Trump delegates, SOME of Kasich and Rubio delegates, along with SOME of Morton Blackwell’s Crusaders must be strong enough to lower the threshold to get Kasich’s and Rubio’s delegates on the ballot.  Once they’re in, it’s Bye Bye Cruz.  UNLESS, Cruz has amassed enough delegates to block a rule change before or after the important vote on the Convention floor to ratify the rules.  He might not have enough delegates to keep the rules the same.  But he might have enough to win on the second ballot.  Oooo Scarwey!

 

 

 

 

 

The Rules Are Fixing to Change

rulesThe Standing Rules Committee

April 10, 2016

Remember, the first way the rules can change will be at the standing rules committee which has been meeting since the 2012 Convention.  Morton Blackwell, who’s been part of the Rules Committee since 1856 (kidding), has actively been trying to change the rules back to the way they were before the 2012 Convention.  In fact, his March 8th article, Rules at the 2016 Republican National Convention, explains very clearly that he was ALMOST successful in getting the rules changed in the RNC Winter Meeting.  Of course, back in January, we wanted those rules changed.  Now, we really don’t.  At first, leaving them the same sounded good because it would cut Kasich out of the race.  However, Morton is trying to change them for the good of the country.  He’s trying to de-centralize the party, and help the grassroots.  Helping the grassroots, however, in this race helps Johnny Boy, because right now he’s stuck in the grass.

Also, if you listen to Mark Levin’s March 31st interview with Morton Blackwell, you’ll see that there’s no indication in that interview that Morton is going to change course or stand down: Mark Levin interviews Morton Blackwell about the RNC rules,  In the article by Matthew Hurtt, from RedState in 2013, Undoing the ‘Ginsberg’ rules at the Spring RNC meeting, Morton has every intention of changing those rules; to open them up more for grassroots candidates.  Hint: Let Kasich on the ballot.  Is Morton FOR Kasich?  No, he’s a Cruz supporter.  See:  Please join me in supporting Ted Cruz.

Here’s another article regarding the rules change: GOP panelists eager to scrap rule that helps Trump. There’s a misconception in this article that the current rules help Trump.  The current eight state majority rule does NOT help Trump.  It would help him if he was way in front and Cruz was not so close on his heels.  As of this weekend, Cruz is on the ballot; he has a majority in eight states.  Because of Trump’s lack of national campaign infrastructure and Cruz’s amazing ground game and ability to secure 2nd and 3rd ballot delegates, the current rules actually hurt Trump.  So he NEEDS them changed.  Luckily for him, there’s enough delegates, and a Morton Blackwell, out there that are so mad at the Romney campaign, they don’t realize that they may likely shoot themselves in the foot by scrapping these rules.  Yuck.

When is the next Standing Rule Committee Meeting?

In Spring.  Sorry, that’s all that’s out there.  There’s a Spring Meeting.  In Morton’s March 8th article (mentioned above) he states that it’s at the end of the month of April.  However, Hurtt’s article (mentioned above) states that it’s April 10th – 13th.  That’s today!  It’s supposed to be in Los Angeles, California, according to the article.  (Sorry that was a 2013 article)  Also found was an article at the DailyCaller, RNC Rules Member: Expect ‘Tweaks’ To Rules At Upcoming Florida Meeting,  that says that it’s 2 weeks from this past Thursday (4/7/16) in Hollywood, Florida.  The Establishment doesn’t really want anything reported on this anyway.  They’re going to want to shape the public perception of the outcome.

Kasich’s Hand is Showing

This Friday, in Michigan, something interesting happened that suggest a foreshadowing of things to come.  Apparently, Trump and Kasich joined forced in Michigan to keep Cruz delegates from getting important Convention positions.  According to the CNN article, Trump, Kasich box out Cruz in Michigan delegation:

The Michigan delegation picked one Trump supporter, Matt Hall, and one Kasich supporter, Judi Schwalbach, for the two seats on the powerful rules committee. The Cruz campaign lost votes for both seats.

Oh what do you know?  How convenient: Trump and Kasich delegates working together to have power over the rules.  Newsmax includes a quote from the Cruz side of things, Cruz Campaign: Trump, Kasich Plotting Against Us, Wendy Day, a Cruz delegate:

The Kasich and Trump teams actually cut a deal and took all those slots.  We couldn’t get any of them. That’s fine, it’s politics, but it was interesting to see those two campaigns team up.

This fella at RedState explains exactly what the plan is in his article, More Proof Kasich Stays in only to do Trump’s Bidding:

It looks more and more like the double-crossing Spoiling Kasich is campaigning to be the Donald’s running mate.

So others are seeing the inevitable union of Trump and Kasich.  Do they need to unite to change the rules?  Not if Morton Blackwell has anything to do with it.  It’s very confusing.  People pushing to keep them the same will probably be the ones that were angry that they were changed.  And people wanting them changed will be the ones who changed them and will unite with ones that were angry that they were changed.  Make sense?  Yes, It’s going to be chaos.

What’s underhanded about it, is Trump is claiming that he’s anti-Establishment, and Kasich is out there saying that he’s going to be the next President;  when both of them are lying through their teeth. The deal is already made.  Think about this.  Cruz already this week clenched his eighth state with the majority of delegates and he’s bound to win a few more.  He DOES NOT NEED a rule change to get on the ballot.  Kasich does.  He’s acting like he’s going to be on the ballot, because he’s made the deal already to get on the ballot; he obviously has expectations.  Trump is the one losing delegates and everybody and their mother knows he will lose at the contested convention, unless he comes up with some delegates.  Kasich and Rubio have delegates for sale.  Trump needs some.

So it’s a trap.  Tea Party, grassroots, conservative people have long wanted the rules of the convention changed to get more power coming from the bottom.  And any other time, they would say, “Yes, change the rules!”  But old Johnny Boy is at the bottom right now.  And he’s Establishment.  He only wants in to take out Cruz.  Very slippery slope.  Now, it’s unclear how many of Kasich delegates will stay loyal to him and do his bidding at the second and third ballot and go to Trump; but it sure smells like a rat.

The Bluff is Still On

Anyhow, the bluff is still going strong.  Check out this headline from Trump surrogate, Breitbart:  ‘The Immaculate Nomination’.  And of course, there’s a picture of Paul Ryan waiting to be anointed the Republican nominee.  Apparently this name has been coined by the Obama administration.  This is simply Establishment propaganda.   There’s no truth to it.

Meanwhile, we still have Rush pushing the false narrative:  Anti-Trumpsters Buoyed by Trump’s Decision to Cancel Trips, Stay in NY

Paul Ryan continues to say, “No way, no way,” but is producing an ad now. I told you yesterday, if you want to find out what’s really going on, keep a sharp eye on the media. You’ll start seeing stories, personality profiles on Ryan. “What a great guy Ryan is!” Stuff on the family, how hard he’s worked, Speaker of the House. We’re not electing speakers of the House. If you start seeing things like that, it could be an indication that they are making a move or planning on a move at a contested convention.

Paul Ryan is never going to be on the ballot.  His brother, David Limbaugh, does get it though and does an excellent job explaining the ramifications of this bluff.  He was interview by Hannity regarding this impossibility:  Trump campaign capitalizes on ‘New York values’ comments; Mike Huckabee: John Kasich should not drop out of the race.  Hannity puts the bluff out there:

HANNITY:  Let me — let me go to an issue that I think you guys are actually going to agree on.  You know, if you look at John Boehner’s comments, talking about a contested convention and he brings up, Oh, anybody can be — anybody’s name can be nominated on the convention floor, and Karl Rove saying, Well, We need somebody who’s battle tested, strong conservative principles, a fresh face — he’s not — he’s talking specifically about somebody that hasn’t run….

HANNITY:  Do you think that there’s a possibility the establishment will try to disenfranchise voters of Trump and Cruz?

Well, some do agree:

GUILFOYLE:  Yes, I think there’s a real, distinct possibility that could happen…

COHEN:  … I agree with her 100 percent…

But David does NOT agree and says the truth about THE BLUFF:

LIMBAUGH:  There are certain people in the Republican Party who fantasize about that, who hate both Trump and Cruz.  But I don’t think it’s a realistic possibility.  As Newt says, when those two, Trump and Cruz, have received some 80 percent of the delegates and 80 percent of the votes, it’s not realistic.

Reince Priebus is talking about it not being realistic.  There’s no monolithic force in the GOP establishment that has set out to do that.  I think they know better than to do that.  It would be the end of the Republican Party.

He goes on to explain the purpose of the bluff.  You see, he’s nailed it and doesn’t really know that he’s nailed it.  Look at that expression he uses:  “…it obscures the fact…”  That, my friend is the definition of a bluff.  Read on.

I think the problem with talking about this so much — and people can talk all they want about it — is that it obscures the fact that there can be a genuine fight in the convention if nobody ends up with 1,237 going in, and I want there to be a fair fight.

Cruz and Trump can fight after the first ballot, after the second ballot in a fair way, a legitimate way, in a way that regards process and the law and the rules.  And whoever wins is legitimate as long as there’s no shenanigans pulled.

And I don’t want it to be perceived if Ted Cruz ends up winning… because he pays attention to details… that he was part of the establishment.

But guess what?  That’s exactly how they’re going to try to paint it.  Cruz is trying to pull shenanigans!  Cruz is trying to steal the election!  Look at this article that came out already:  Trump Convention Manager: Cruz Using ‘Gestapo Tactics’ to Win Over Delegates.  Trump is already threatening riot and chaos if he doesn’t get his way at the convention: Trump’s Convention Strategy: “The Fix Is In”  He’ll try his best to delegitimize Cruz and obscure the fact that Cruz has emerged the strongest candidate, the most honest, and what the American people really want.

 

Distraction on Both Sides

gcbcApril 8, 2016

As outlined in The Great Bluff, the conversation revolving around the Establishment dropping in a non-candidate into the convention mix is a bluff.  It may not be, but it may be.  So I want to keep track of all that’s going on out there to perpetuate this bluff.  On one side, you’re going to have the fear-mongering and finger-pointing saying “The Establishment is going to put Ryan in!”; knowing full well that it’s mechanically impossible.  On the other side, you’re going to have the Establishment confirming and perpetuating these fears saying, “Yeah, that’s exactly what we’re gonna do!”; all while knowing full well that it’s mechanically impossible.  They’ve been successful so far in amplifying this rhetoric in order to make getting Kasich on the ballot look like a compromise.

News has circulated around Paul Ryan’s new video, Politics These Days.  Drudge Report offers up their analysis:  PAUL RYAN LAUNCHES FIRST CAMPAIGN AD?    Of course, Drudge is obviously a Trump surrogate.  Drudge’s part of the bluff is to continue the narrative that the Establishment is trying to sneakily drop in Ryan as a candidate at the convention.  This is despite the fact, that no one on earth has yet to explain how they’re going to do that.  Paul Ryan’s part in this is unclear.  Is he complicit in making videos that can be interpreted in this fashion?  I think it’s a bit of a stretch.  If anything, the video seems to be more anti-Trump and truly a stump for Cruz.  If he’s complicit, he makes the video to feed speculations, and then acts like he did when they accused him of wanting the Speaker position:  Just keep saying no.  And everyone goes nuts:  “See, it’s the same.  He must want to be President!”  And Ryan just keeps it going.  And the supposed “anti-Establishment” keeps accusing.  The Breitbart echo’s the call with more propaganda: CAMPAIGN AD?  Funny, you never really see Cruz people perpetuating this.  It’s usually Trump people.  So that’s one side:  The side that accuses and fear-mongers and finger-points.  Look at this headline today (4/8/16) on Breitbart:  Wash Post’s Robert Costa: ‘Party Elite’ Could Turn to Paul Ryan ‘in a Chaos Situation in Cleveland’.

On the other side, you got articles like this: Rasmussen Poll: Ryan Would Lose to Clinton/Sanders.  Now what does this truly accomplish?  This is put out there to feed the anger about Ryan taking the nomination.  Yes, if somehow somebody figured out a way to get Ryan on the ballot, everybody would be hopping mad.  Even just suggesting it gets the same effect.  It gets Trump people mad.  It gets Cruz people mad.  So this article feeds that anger.  It confirms the accusations, the fear-mongering, and finger-pointing.  “You see what happens if the Establishment succeeds?  We got to stop them!”  This article is designed to get people talking and keep talking about something that will never happen.  Here’s another one: Rick Santorum: GOP Race Still Wide Open.  The writer states, “Santorum pointed out the possibility that delegates at the convention could choose a nominee that is not in the race.”  Didn’t Rick endorse Rubio?  Rubio hasn’t endorsed anybody and has not released his delegates.  Why?  Trump NEEDS Kasich and Rubio delegates.  A deal on the convention floor could hand those to him.

How about Rush?  He’s probably on neither side, but he eats this up and keeps repeating it.  Look what he’s still saying right now (4/9/2016):

…If any of you are wondering what the establishment is gonna do and what they’re doing in preparation for a contested convention, and if they are, whom are they thinking of putting up, who would they like to be the nominee, there’s a way to find out what they’re doing.  All you have to do is read The Politico.  That’s where the Republican Party goes to leak things.

The second thing to do is to keep a sharp eye on — I’ll give you just a list of names as an example.  Ryan, Walker, Romney, Jeb.  If you start seeing in the media news stories that are essentially puff piece profiles, if you start seeing news stories about what has Jeb been doing since he got out, and how is Jeb reacting to it, and what’s Jeb planning for his future. Or about Scott Walker, or about Ryan, if you see news stories where there is an attempt to build the case for somebody and you wonder, “What’s this about?”  They’re floating possibilities.

This is where you read between the lines and you figure out what they’re trying to pull off. And that’s how you can identify if there is somebody that they have singled out that they do want to nominate in a contested convention, just watch and see which Republican establishment types are getting a lot of it news coverage, the kind of coverage that would serve the purpose of establishing a reputation, establishing qualifications, establishing a sense of purpose.  Yes, they might not have made it throughout the primaries, but has learned a lot and has stayed involved, is closely watching events and wants to do anything possible to help the party.

If you start seeing stories like that about anybody, that will be a good indication what the power brokers are thinking.  I think we’ve seen that with Ryan.  We’ve seen a lot of stories about Ryan…

So you have this false narrative being trumpeted by both sides.  Trumpsters are accusing the Establishment on one side, and you got little hints coming from the Establishment that the accusations are true.  Ping Pong Bluff Tactic.  Good cop. Bad Cop.  It’s all false.  It will never happen.  Especially, because Cruz is very close to locking down the eight state delegate majority.  If you look at delegate count right now (as of April 7-8,9), you’ll see that Cruz has locked down a majority of delegates in seven states.  The eighth one is Colorado and he’s getting very close to the majority this very moment“Republican presidential candidate Sen. Ted Cruz picks up another three delegates in Colorado’s district 7 on Thursday, with another four districts voting and state level Republican party voting this weekend.”  Once he locks down the eight state majority threshold, then he doesn’t NEED a rule change to get on the ballot, like Kasich does.  His delegates can lobby and vote to keep the rules as is, go into the contested convention and win this thing. (That’s if Trump, Kasich, and Rubio delegates don’t unite to change the rule.  Why not?  We’ll get you on that ballot and in the VP spot if you push your delegates our way)

The reality is that the front runners have the real power to change the rules or keep the rules the same.  You’ve got Reince telling people over and over what the rules are:  He’s states, “It’s not like the Rules Committee is going to come together and say, now it’s no states.  They take all of the recommendations to the convention and the majority of delegates accept it.”  As I’ve stated before, all these delegates are anti-Establishment delegates.  There is no way they’re going to vote themselves off the ballot or some no-name on the ballot.  So all the chaos and fear-mongering is a smoke-screen.  It’s cover for the fact that all they really want is Kasich on the ballot; not to win mind you, but for Trump to win.   Their strategy is to take out Cruz in the convention and Trump in the general.

 

UPDATE: (1:06 PM 4/8/16)  Look at this junk:  Conservatives Eye Gen. James Mattis as Presidential Alternative   The writer states:  “This summer’s Republican National Convention will have to be contested in order for Mattis to land on the presidential ballot.”  Yet if you actually read what the Daily Beast article he’s referring to, it has absolutely nothing to do with the RNC.  They’re talking about Mattis going 3rd Party.

The Great Bluff

The Fresh Face?

img_angif-poker-face-scen02April 7, 2016

This whole notion that Establishment is going to parachute some non-candidate into the convention is a bluff.  They are practicing the “Art of the Deal.”   They are proposing something that is so far out of the scope of what is possible in hopes of getting something in the middle.  This strategy is a bluff because it’s something that has NEVER happened in the history of the Republican Party, and it never will happen.  John Boehner said “If we don’t have a nominee who can win on the first ballot, I’m for none of the above. They all had a chance to win. None of them won. So I’m for none of the above. I’m for Paul Ryan to be our nominee.”  John Boehner was the Chairman of the 2008 and 2012 convention.  He knows full well that this parachute notion is impossible.  Karl Rove said, “…a fresh face might be the thing that could give us a chance to turn this election and win in November.”  Karl Rove the ultimate establishment insider, he’s been through this numerous times.  He also knows full well that this will never happen.

How do we know this won’t happen?  How do we know it’s impossible?  First, it never has happened in the history of the Republican Party.  Ever since the Civil War, this has never happened.  The nomination has always been given to a candidate that was on the 1st ballot at the convention.  Secondly, the current rules absolutely do no allow it.  The only way the Establishment can drop someone new in is to CHANGE THE RULES.  There’s four ways to amend the rules:

Ultimately though, to make the rules effectual from the 2016 convention forward, the majority of these 2473 delegates must vote to ratify the entire set of rules before the convention continues.  So in the end, it makes no difference who, what, or when the rules are amended, the delegates must vote to make them effectual.  So there is no way on God’s green earth that all these delegates (a grand majority of which are bound to anti-Establishment candidates) are going to vote to bring in an Establishment non-candidate like Ryan or Romney that hasn’t run the entire campaign season.  No way.  No how.  Forget about it.

Fortunately, on Tuesday, Jamie Dupree and Newt Gingrich finally corrected Hannity about this nonsense. Newsmax wrote: ‘Gingrich said Trump and Cruz will enter the convention with 80 percent of the delegates, and have no incentive to change a current rule that requires someone to have won the most votes in at least eight states to secure the nomination. Why, he asked, would they “give it to some nice person who didn’t run, didn’t raise money, didn’t debate, didn’t win delegates but what the heck? ‘He’s really,’ or ‘she’s really, a terrific person.’ I mean, even in a novel you couldn’t get away with this.”‘  It will be interesting to see if Rush and Hannity will keep parroting this false strategy.

Why bluff?

So why would Establishment types keep pushing this narrative?  Why would they keep saying that they want to do something they know they can’t do?  They are proposing something that is so far out of the scope of what is possible in hopes of getting something in the middle that IS possible.  What is possible?  The only remote possibility they have of affecting this nomination and thus the presidency lies in Kasich.  That’s why he’s still in there.  As the rules stand now, there is no way for Kasich to get on the ballot.  He has not won a majority of delegates in eight states.  That’s just not going to happen either.  So the establishment’s only hope is to get a rule change that will allow Kasich on the ballot.  This is not so that Kasich can win, but so that Kasich and Trump can broker a deal on the convention floor and Trump can win.

So the bluffing serves two purposes:  First, it caused an unwarranted fear of a contested convention and of the establishment.  In that respect it worked.  Sean Hannity parroted this bologna 20 times a day for the past 2 months and has tried endlessly to scare people into believing that the Establishment is going to “leap frog” some non-candidate into the mix.  Rush Limbaugh bit too.  Every episode he made sure to tell us that the Establishment’s plan was to parachute in a savior.  It is their hope that this fear will cause people to coalesce around Trump so he can win outright on the 1st ballot.  Now, whether or not Sean and Rush did this intentionally or out of ignorance, I’ll let you decide.  Well, it didn’t work: just like all their other plans this season.  Secondly, and more realistically, is to distract from the inevitable rule change that will let their man in on the 1st ballot.

Now, note that there has been a push since 2012 to change the rules in this manner.  The kicker is that it hasn’t come from the Establishment.  In 2012 rule 40 was tightened up by the Establishment (a majority of the delegates voted to change this rule on the convention floor, the grand majority of them were Romney delegates, so go figure).  It was tightened up to keep Ron Paul off the ballot.  Subsequently, Ron Paul delegates were completely disenfranchised.  They couldn’t vote, their vote was not counted, and they were completely ignored when the numbers were announced.  So rightly so, they were pretty mad.  They’re still mad.  So this January, for the second time that I know of, at the standing rules committee meeting, this issue was brought up and the rules were actually amended.  But at the last second, it was motioned to reconsider, and it was shot down.

Why?  At that point in time, January, no primaries or caucuses had taken place, and the Establishment was still thinking they could run this like they always have and wanted the rules to stay the same.  But since then, Whoops! Jeb Bush is out. Christie is out. Rubio is out.  Now, the two front runners are Trump and Cruz and the last man they got is Kasich.  Oh the irony!  The same rule they put in to keep Ron Paul out is the same one that keeps their last hope out.  There’s another standing rules committee meeting at the end of April.  It will be very interesting to hear what song the Establishment is singing then.

Now, they HAVE to change the rules; but not for the sake of winning.  There’s no way Kasich can win (I’ll explain later).  The Establishment has already lost.  They know it’s either Trump or Cruz now.  So keep in mind that the Establishment’s definition of winning is not necessarily a Republican in the White House.  Some of them have flat out said that they’d vote for Hillary over Trump.  Their strategy is to take Cruz out at the convention and Trump out in the general.  So they’re bluffing about this whole parachute a non-candidate fresh face in to distract from the real fight:  Rule 40.  I just read an article about how Ron Paul’s people are running the Pro-Trump PACs   There’s already a move to change Rule 40 on the basis and interest of fairness.  It’s very likely that establishment people in standing rules committee will say, “Well there was a lot of support for this in January, and it wasn’t fair for 2012 Paul delegates, and we believe that yes we should let every candidate’s delegates be counted and announced.  The fair thing to do is open up Rule 40.”

They’re going to try to pull this off; and it is reasonable.  Any sensible person would agree.  It’s not fair that delegates that are bound to vote for candidates by the national convention, state convention, and the vote of the people be prevented from casting their vote.  They should at the very least be allowed to vote for whom they are bound to vote for.  It makes sense.  They are most likely going to change the threshold (Rule 40:  eight-state majority of delegates).  The question will be where will that threshold land?  If they roll it back to 2012 rules, the threshold would be that the candidate must win five states; they must get the plurality of the delegates in five states.  Sounds good, but if this still disenfranchises Kasich delegates, and Rubio delegates for that matter, then what’s the point?  So there will be a moral argument to lower the threshold enough to at least let the people who are still running show up on the 1st ballot.  And the Establishment knows and will take advantage of the non-Establishment’s dedication to morality!  Will the amendment pass?   That is yet to be determined.  When it gets to the convention floor and the 2473 delegates vote on these rules, will a majority vote in favor?  That’s yet to be determined.

So the bluff is a distraction and leverage to change Rule 40 to their favor.  It will show the world how willing they are to compromise and be fair to ALL the candidates.  The Trojan horse is FAIRNESS.  Sneaky?  Yes.

If the bluff works?

In other words, what if Kasich gets on the ballot?  Not good.  The Establishment’s intentions are for Trump to offer Kasich the Vice-Presidential position in return for his delegates.  There may be some deal for Rubio too.  The delegates will eventually be free to vote their conscience.  However, where they go will have a lot to do with what deals are brokered.  That’s why it’s called a brokered convention.  Most likely, the deal is already made.  Trump, the great deal maker, knows that one on one with Cruz is a losing proposition.  He needs the Establishment to win in a contested convention.  He’s getting desperate now because he’s sinking in the polls.  He’s leaking unbound delegates.  He’s leaking bound delegates. Cruz is gaining momentum and winning delegates.  The only way to win is to make a deal with the Establishment.  Trump wants to win, so he’ll make the deal.  The Establishment doesn’t want to win.  They want to stay in power.  If they can get Kasich on the ballot and swing all his delegates and anybody else to Trump, then they destroy Cruz.  That’s a win for the Establishment.  They can show everyone how well they unify and support the nominee.  Trump goes on to the general election and loses.  That’s a win for the Establishment.  Nothing would make them happier than to have a Democrat in the White House.  Then they can stay RINOs and kick political footballs around for another 4 years.

Another thing to consider is the track record of a front-runner going into a contested convention like Trump is:  There have been ten contested conventions in the history of the RNC.  Four of those ten, the nomination has gone to the front runner, the candidate with the plurality of the delegates.  Of those four, every single one of them lost the general election.

Now, some people think that the Establishment honestly would want Kasich to win.  And conservative talk and radio go along with this.  This is also a distraction.  They go on and on and on about how delusional Kasich is.  “He has no mathematical chance of winning the nomination!  He’s trying to drag this to a contested convention!  He’s a spoiler!  Why is he still in this race?”  Well here’s why:  Of the ten contested conventions that the party has gone through, in six of them the nomination was given to an underdog.  Five of those six times, the nominee has gone on to actually win the Presidency of the United States.  And surprisingly, five of those six also came into the convention with less delegates that Kasich has now (12%).  And as I said earlier, all of the four front-runners that won the nomination lost the general election.  So, historically speaking, if he could just get on the ballot, Kasich has the greatest chance of winning the Presidency of the three!  Kasich is not delusional.  He’s just historical!

As also previously stated, IF we get to a contested convention with Kasich on the ballot, he still cannot win, despite the fact that history is on his side.  This is because of what he’s up against.  He is not competing against other Establishment candidates like Jeb and Rubio, or other governors like Perry and Walker.  This is a Cruz and Trump convention now.  The vast majority of delegates are bound to vote against the Establishment.  Sorry Johnny!  You’re the outsider now!  We have come to the point of no return.  This is no normal election.

Calling the Bluff

Don’t change the rules.  Leave them as they are.  THAT is fair.  These are the rules they all agree to before this race started.  The only reason to change them is to accommodate some person that doesn’t want to follow the rules.  The rhetoric will soon come that we must be fair and democratic and thus change the rules.  Don’t fall for that mess.  What’s good for the goose is good for the gander.  They wrote the rules.  Let them follow them.